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WMT logoWMTEquity research

Report date: 2026-06-07

$129.17+4.31 (+3.45%)Live · delayed quote, informational only

Analysis focus

Provide a balanced, comprehensive analysis: fundamentals and valuation, the Wall Street view, technical posture, and the key forward risks and catalysts.

Summary

As of the June 5, 2026 close, Walmart trades around $118.88 (intraday refs near $117-$121 on June 5-6), down roughly 12% from its 52-week and all-time closing high of ~$134-$135 set in May 2026, and well above its 52-week low of $93.43. The technical picture has cooled from euphoric: price sits below its 50-day moving average (~$126) but holds above a rising 200-day moving average (~$115-$116), so the long-term uptrend is intact while medium-term momentum has rolled over. RSI(14) reads roughly 41 (weak but not oversold), with stochastics in oversold territory; the 200-day MA near $115 is the key support reference, while reclaiming the 50-day (~$126) and the prior highs near $134 are the overhead resistance levels. The pullback follows the May 21 Q1 FY27 earnings print and persistent debate over the stock's elevated multiple. Despite the slide, trailing 12-month return is still strongly positive (~+30-37%) and 6-month return is roughly +12-15%. The bull case rests on durable share gains plus a high-margin profit mix shift. Q1 FY27 (quarter ended April 2026, reported May 21) showed total revenue up 7.3% (5.9% constant currency), Walmart U.S. comps +4.1% (ex-fuel) and Sam's Club U.S. +3.9%, with global e-commerce up 26% — extending a multi-year double-digit streak. The profit engine is increasingly the high-margin flywheel: global advertising grew 37% (Walmart Connect U.S. +44% ex-VIZIO) and global membership income rose 17.4%; for full-year FY26, Walmart Connect reached ~$6.4B in ad revenue (+46%), and advertising plus membership now contribute roughly a third of operating profit on under 1% of sales. Management guides FY27 to net sales growth of 3.5-4.5% and adjusted operating income growth of 6.0-8.0% (constant currency) with adjusted EPS of $2.75-$2.85, and Q2 adjusted EPS of $0.72-$0.74. Analyst sentiment is bullish: consensus is roughly Buy/Strong Buy across 40-56 analysts, with an average 12-month target around $138-$142 (median ~$140) and a high near $155, implying low-double-digit upside from current levels. The bear case centers on valuation and margin/macro fragility. WMT trades at a trailing P/E of ~42 and a forward P/E in the high-30s to ~44 (sources diverge), versus a consumer-retail average near ~21x — a steep premium with little margin of safety; one DCF cited fair value near ~$124, ~2% above where shares trade only after the pullback. Q1 FY27 operating income grew just 5.0% (lagging revenue), pressured ~250 bps by higher fuel/distribution costs, and reported free cash flow was negative ~$1.9B for the quarter on seasonal working capital (FY26 full-year FCF was ~$14.9B, so the quarterly negative is seasonal, not structural). Tariffs are the most cited risk: with meaningful China/import exposure in general merchandise, any pass-through or absorption of duties could compress gross margin — a ~100 bp hit would erase billions in operating income. Competition from Amazon (a far larger ad business) and Costco pressures pricing power, international e-commerce remains a drag, and wage/claims inflation persists. At ~40x earnings on mid-single-digit operating-income growth, a multiple re-rating is the key downside risk. None of this constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell.

Findings (17)

Walmart Q1 FY27 (quarter ended April 2026, reported May 21, 2026) total revenue grew 7.3% (5.9% constant currency).

High confidence

Walmart's official corporate earnings release states total revenues grew 7.3% (5.9% cc), corroborated by third-party Q1 FY27 earnings coverage.

Walmart U.S. comparable sales rose 4.1% (ex-fuel) and Sam's Club U.S. rose 3.9% in Q1 FY27.

High confidence

Corporate release reports Walmart U.S. comps +4.1% and Sam's Club U.S. +3.9% (ex-fuel); search corroboration confirms +4.1% U.S. comps above guidance.

Q1 FY27 global e-commerce grew 26% (Walmart U.S. e-commerce +26%, International +27%, Sam's +23%).

High confidence

Corporate release details 26% global e-commerce growth by segment; 24/7 Wall St. coverage of the same print cites 26% e-commerce growth.

Q1 FY27 adjusted EPS was $0.61, beating the ~$0.58 consensus; revenue ~$164.0B was roughly in line.

High confidence

24/7 Wall St. reports adjusted EPS $0.61 vs $0.58 est. and revenue $163.98B vs $164.43B est.; corroborated by earnings-preview/recap coverage.

Q1 FY27 operating income grew only 5.0%, pressured ~250 bps by higher fuel costs in distribution/fulfillment.

High confidence

Corporate release reports operating income +5.0% (adjusted +5.1% cc); coverage notes the ~250 bps fuel drag and Walmart U.S. adjusted operating income of ~$6,023M (+5.7%).

Global advertising grew 37% in Q1 FY27, with Walmart Connect U.S. up 44% (ex-VIZIO); membership income up 17.4%.

High confidence

Corporate release reports global advertising +37% (Walmart Connect U.S. +44% ex-VIZIO) and global membership income +17.4%; trade coverage confirms Connect growing far faster than total sales.

Full-year FY26 Walmart Connect ad revenue reached ~$6.4B (+46%); advertising plus membership together are ~1/3 of operating profit.

High confidence

ALM Corp analysis cites $6.4B FY26 ad revenue (+46%) with advertising and membership ~1/3 of Q4 operating income; Walmart Q4 release confirms global advertising +37% and membership +15.1%.

Walmart FY27 guidance: net sales growth 3.5-4.5%, adjusted operating income growth 6.0-8.0% (cc), adjusted EPS $2.75-$2.85; Q2 adjusted EPS $0.72-$0.74.

High confidence

Coverage of the Q1 FY27 print reports unchanged FY27 outlook (net sales +3.5-4.5%, adj. operating income +6-8% cc, adj. EPS $2.75-$2.85) and Q2 adjusted EPS guidance of $0.72-$0.74.

FY26 full-year free cash flow was ~$14.9B and operating cash flow ~$41.6B; Q1 FY27 FCF was a seasonal negative ~-$1.9B.

High confidence

Walmart's FY26 release reports operating cash flow $41.6B and FCF $14.9B; the Q1 FY27 release reports operating cash flow $4.7B and FCF of ($1.9B), reflecting seasonal working-capital build.

WMT trades around $118.88 (June 5, 2026 close), down ~12% from a 52-week/all-time closing high of ~$134-$135 (May 2026); 52-week low $93.43.

High confidence

StockAnalysis shows $118.88 close (June 5), 52-week range $93.43-$135.16; Macrotrends/search confirm all-time closing high $134.20 on May 19, 2026.

Market cap is roughly $946B with a dividend yield near 0.83%.

High confidence

StockAnalysis reports market cap $946.06B and 0.83% dividend yield as of June 5, 2026.

Trailing P/E is ~42 and forward P/E is in the high-30s to ~44, a steep premium to the ~21x consumer-retail average.

Medium confidence

StockAnalysis shows trailing P/E ~41.85 and forward P/E ~39.86; other sources cite forward P/E 39.10-49.39 and a ~46x P/E debate vs ~21x industry average. Forward multiple is contested across sources.

EV/EBITDA is approximately 22-23x.

Medium confidence

FinanceCharts reports EV/EBITDA 22.62 (May 28, 2026), roughly in line with its ~22.2 twelve-month average; treated medium given single primary source and slight time drift.

Analyst consensus is Buy/Strong Buy with an average 12-month target around $138-$142 (median ~$140), high ~$155, implying low-double-digit upside.

Medium confidence

StockAnalysis shows Strong Buy across 43 analysts, average target $137.93 / median $140 / high $155; TipRanks/search show Strong Buy and an average near $142. Target range and analyst counts vary by source.

Technicals: price below the 50-day MA (~$126) but above the rising 200-day MA (~$115-$116); RSI(14) ~41 (weak, not oversold).

Medium confidence

Barchart shows 50-day MA $125.94, 200-day MA $115.46, RSI(14) ~41.27 with oversold stochastics; readings vary across aggregators (some cite RSI ~51 or ~67), so confidence is medium.

Trailing 12-month return is ~+30-37% and 6-month return ~+12-15%, despite the recent ~12% pullback from highs.

Medium confidence

Search/Benzinga coverage cites a ~37% one-year return and ~15% gain since 12/31/2025; figures are approximate and depend on exact start date, hence medium confidence.

Bear case: WMT screens as ~2% overvalued on one DCF (fair value ~$124) with tariff exposure that could compress gross margin ~100 bps and erase billions in operating income.

Medium confidence

Valuation-critique coverage cites a DCF fair value near $124, a 46x P/E vs ~21x industry, 25-30% China exposure in general merchandise, and that a ~100 bp gross-margin tariff hit would remove billions in operating income; analytical opinion, not company data.

Sources (35)

Caveats

Time-sensitive: price/technicals reflect the June 5-6, 2026 window and will drift quickly; quoted price is the June 5 close (~$118.88), and an earlier search returned a stale ~$133.89 quote that was not used. Walmart's fiscal calendar is a year ahead of the calendar year — the latest reported quarter is Q1 FY27 (ended April 2026, reported May 21, 2026), which is easily confused with 'FY2026.' Contested/medium-confidence figures: forward P/E (sources span ~39 to ~49), EV/EBITDA (~22-23x, single primary source with slight date drift), analyst target average (~$138-$142 with median ~$140; analyst counts range 27-56), RSI(14) (Barchart ~41 vs other aggregators showing ~51 or ~67), and 6m/12m returns (approximate, start-date dependent). Q1 FY27 free cash flow was negative ~-$1.9B but this is seasonal working-capital timing, not a structural cash-flow problem (FY26 FCF was ~$14.9B). DCF fair-value (~$124) and tariff-margin-impact figures are third-party analyst opinion from lower-quality sources, not company disclosures. Several primary SEC/IR pages (SEC EDGAR HTML, stock.walmart.com PDF, investing.com ratios) returned 402/403 and could not be directly fetched; figures were corroborated via the corporate.walmart.com releases and secondary aggregators. This report is informational only and is NOT a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold WMT.

This report is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice. No buy / sell / hold recommendation is made or implied.

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