Report date: 2026-06-07
Analysis focus
Provide a balanced, comprehensive analysis: fundamentals and valuation, the Wall Street view, technical posture, and the key forward risks and catalysts.
Summary
Findings (17)
Walmart Q1 FY27 (quarter ended April 2026, reported May 21, 2026) total revenue grew 7.3% (5.9% constant currency).
High confidenceWalmart's official corporate earnings release states total revenues grew 7.3% (5.9% cc), corroborated by third-party Q1 FY27 earnings coverage.
Walmart U.S. comparable sales rose 4.1% (ex-fuel) and Sam's Club U.S. rose 3.9% in Q1 FY27.
High confidenceCorporate release reports Walmart U.S. comps +4.1% and Sam's Club U.S. +3.9% (ex-fuel); search corroboration confirms +4.1% U.S. comps above guidance.
Q1 FY27 global e-commerce grew 26% (Walmart U.S. e-commerce +26%, International +27%, Sam's +23%).
High confidenceCorporate release details 26% global e-commerce growth by segment; 24/7 Wall St. coverage of the same print cites 26% e-commerce growth.
Q1 FY27 adjusted EPS was $0.61, beating the ~$0.58 consensus; revenue ~$164.0B was roughly in line.
High confidence24/7 Wall St. reports adjusted EPS $0.61 vs $0.58 est. and revenue $163.98B vs $164.43B est.; corroborated by earnings-preview/recap coverage.
Q1 FY27 operating income grew only 5.0%, pressured ~250 bps by higher fuel costs in distribution/fulfillment.
High confidenceCorporate release reports operating income +5.0% (adjusted +5.1% cc); coverage notes the ~250 bps fuel drag and Walmart U.S. adjusted operating income of ~$6,023M (+5.7%).
Global advertising grew 37% in Q1 FY27, with Walmart Connect U.S. up 44% (ex-VIZIO); membership income up 17.4%.
High confidenceCorporate release reports global advertising +37% (Walmart Connect U.S. +44% ex-VIZIO) and global membership income +17.4%; trade coverage confirms Connect growing far faster than total sales.
Full-year FY26 Walmart Connect ad revenue reached ~$6.4B (+46%); advertising plus membership together are ~1/3 of operating profit.
High confidenceALM Corp analysis cites $6.4B FY26 ad revenue (+46%) with advertising and membership ~1/3 of Q4 operating income; Walmart Q4 release confirms global advertising +37% and membership +15.1%.
Walmart FY27 guidance: net sales growth 3.5-4.5%, adjusted operating income growth 6.0-8.0% (cc), adjusted EPS $2.75-$2.85; Q2 adjusted EPS $0.72-$0.74.
High confidenceCoverage of the Q1 FY27 print reports unchanged FY27 outlook (net sales +3.5-4.5%, adj. operating income +6-8% cc, adj. EPS $2.75-$2.85) and Q2 adjusted EPS guidance of $0.72-$0.74.
FY26 full-year free cash flow was ~$14.9B and operating cash flow ~$41.6B; Q1 FY27 FCF was a seasonal negative ~-$1.9B.
High confidenceWalmart's FY26 release reports operating cash flow $41.6B and FCF $14.9B; the Q1 FY27 release reports operating cash flow $4.7B and FCF of ($1.9B), reflecting seasonal working-capital build.
WMT trades around $118.88 (June 5, 2026 close), down ~12% from a 52-week/all-time closing high of ~$134-$135 (May 2026); 52-week low $93.43.
High confidenceStockAnalysis shows $118.88 close (June 5), 52-week range $93.43-$135.16; Macrotrends/search confirm all-time closing high $134.20 on May 19, 2026.
Market cap is roughly $946B with a dividend yield near 0.83%.
High confidenceStockAnalysis reports market cap $946.06B and 0.83% dividend yield as of June 5, 2026.
Trailing P/E is ~42 and forward P/E is in the high-30s to ~44, a steep premium to the ~21x consumer-retail average.
Medium confidenceStockAnalysis shows trailing P/E ~41.85 and forward P/E ~39.86; other sources cite forward P/E 39.10-49.39 and a ~46x P/E debate vs ~21x industry average. Forward multiple is contested across sources.
EV/EBITDA is approximately 22-23x.
Medium confidenceFinanceCharts reports EV/EBITDA 22.62 (May 28, 2026), roughly in line with its ~22.2 twelve-month average; treated medium given single primary source and slight time drift.
Analyst consensus is Buy/Strong Buy with an average 12-month target around $138-$142 (median ~$140), high ~$155, implying low-double-digit upside.
Medium confidenceStockAnalysis shows Strong Buy across 43 analysts, average target $137.93 / median $140 / high $155; TipRanks/search show Strong Buy and an average near $142. Target range and analyst counts vary by source.
Technicals: price below the 50-day MA (~$126) but above the rising 200-day MA (~$115-$116); RSI(14) ~41 (weak, not oversold).
Medium confidenceBarchart shows 50-day MA $125.94, 200-day MA $115.46, RSI(14) ~41.27 with oversold stochastics; readings vary across aggregators (some cite RSI ~51 or ~67), so confidence is medium.
Trailing 12-month return is ~+30-37% and 6-month return ~+12-15%, despite the recent ~12% pullback from highs.
Medium confidenceSearch/Benzinga coverage cites a ~37% one-year return and ~15% gain since 12/31/2025; figures are approximate and depend on exact start date, hence medium confidence.
Bear case: WMT screens as ~2% overvalued on one DCF (fair value ~$124) with tariff exposure that could compress gross margin ~100 bps and erase billions in operating income.
Medium confidenceValuation-critique coverage cites a DCF fair value near $124, a 46x P/E vs ~21x industry, 25-30% China exposure in general merchandise, and that a ~100 bp gross-margin tariff hit would remove billions in operating income; analytical opinion, not company data.
Sources (35)
- https://corporate.walmart.com/news/2026/05/21/walmart-releases-q1-fy27-earningsfundamentalsPrimary
- https://corporate.walmart.com/news/2026/02/19/walmart-releases-q4-fy26-earningsfundamentalsPrimary
- https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0000104169/000010416926000095/earningsreleasefy27q1.htmfundamentalsPrimary
- https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0000104169/000010416926000032/earningsreleasefy26q4.htmfundamentalsPrimary
- https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0000104169/000010416926000102/wmt-20260430.htmfundamentalsPrimary
- https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0000104169/000010416926000091/wmtfy26annualreport-final.pdffundamentalsPrimary
- https://stock.walmart.com/_assets/_ab22259f8a4ca1a601444c7adc401ed9/walmart/db/938/9995/earnings_release/Earnings+Release+(FY27+Q1).pdffundamentalsPrimary
- https://247wallst.com/companies/wmt/earnings/2026/Q1fundamentalsSecondary
- https://www.heygotrade.com/en/blog/walmart-q1-fy27-earnings-us-consumer-pulse/fundamentalsSecondary
- https://almcorp.com/blog/walmart-advertising-revenue-6-4-billion-growth-strategy-2026/fundamentalsSecondary
- https://winningwithwalmart.com/walmart-connect-is-growing-six-times-faster-than-walmarts-sales-ask-your-connect-team-why/fundamentalsSecondary
- https://www.quantumrun.com/consulting/walmart-statistics/fundamentalsUnreliable
- https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/wmt/valuationSecondary
- https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/wmt/forecast/valuationSecondary
- https://www.tipranks.com/stocks/wmt/forecastvaluationSecondary
- https://www.marketbeat.com/stocks/NASDAQ/WMT/forecast/valuationSecondary
- https://public.com/stocks/wmt/forecast-price-targetvaluationSecondary
- https://www.benzinga.com/quote/WMT/analyst-ratingsvaluationSecondary
- https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/WALMART-INC-4841/consensus/valuationSecondary
- https://www.investing.com/equities/wal-mart-stores-consensus-estimatesvaluationSecondary
- https://www.investing.com/equities/wal-mart-stores-ratiosvaluationSecondary
- https://www.financecharts.com/stocks/WMT/value/ev-to-ebitdavaluationSecondary
- https://www.gurufocus.com/term/forward-pe-ratio/WMTvaluationSecondary
- https://valueinvesting.io/WMT/metric/forward-pevaluationSecondary
- https://www.fool.com/investing/how-to-invest/stocks/walmart-stock-forecast/valuationSecondary
- https://www.barchart.com/stocks/quotes/WMT/technical-analysistechnicalsSecondary
- https://www.investing.com/equities/wal-mart-stores-technicaltechnicalsSecondary
- https://altindex.com/ticker/wmt/technical-analysistechnicalsSecondary
- https://www.chartmill.com/stock/quote/WMT/technical-analysistechnicalsSecondary
- https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/WMT/walmart/stock-price-historytechnicalsSecondary
- https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/WMT/technicalsSecondary
- https://blog.mexc.com/finance/wmt-stock-analysis-2026-is-walmart-s-46x-p-e-justified-after-a-49-run/risksUnreliable
- https://www.ad-hoc-news.de/boerse/news/ueberblick/walmart-inc-stock-faces-valuation-scrutiny-amid-46x-p-e-debate-and-tariff/68945110risksUnreliable
- https://www.benzinga.com/money/walmart-stock-price-predictionrisksSecondary
- https://www.kavout.com/market-lens/what-s-driving-the-surge-in-bearish-bets-on-walmart-wmt-optionsrisksUnreliable
Caveats
Time-sensitive: price/technicals reflect the June 5-6, 2026 window and will drift quickly; quoted price is the June 5 close (~$118.88), and an earlier search returned a stale ~$133.89 quote that was not used. Walmart's fiscal calendar is a year ahead of the calendar year — the latest reported quarter is Q1 FY27 (ended April 2026, reported May 21, 2026), which is easily confused with 'FY2026.' Contested/medium-confidence figures: forward P/E (sources span ~39 to ~49), EV/EBITDA (~22-23x, single primary source with slight date drift), analyst target average (~$138-$142 with median ~$140; analyst counts range 27-56), RSI(14) (Barchart ~41 vs other aggregators showing ~51 or ~67), and 6m/12m returns (approximate, start-date dependent). Q1 FY27 free cash flow was negative ~-$1.9B but this is seasonal working-capital timing, not a structural cash-flow problem (FY26 FCF was ~$14.9B). DCF fair-value (~$124) and tariff-margin-impact figures are third-party analyst opinion from lower-quality sources, not company disclosures. Several primary SEC/IR pages (SEC EDGAR HTML, stock.walmart.com PDF, investing.com ratios) returned 402/403 and could not be directly fetched; figures were corroborated via the corporate.walmart.com releases and secondary aggregators. This report is informational only and is NOT a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold WMT.
This report is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice. No buy / sell / hold recommendation is made or implied.