Report date: 2026-11-04
Analysis focus
Provide a balanced, comprehensive analysis: fundamentals and valuation, the Wall Street view, technical posture, and the key forward risks and catalysts.
Summary
Findings (16)
Tesla closed at $398.50 on November 3, 2026 (down 1.32%), giving a market cap of about $1.58 trillion and enterprise value of about $1.55 trillion, with the stock trading at 437.83x trailing earnings, 186.41x forward earnings, 17.64x book and 157.16x EV/EBITDA, and paying no dividend.
High confidenceStockanalysis.com statistics page lists price $398.50 at Nov 3, 2026 close, market cap 1.58T, EV 1.55T, trailing P/E 437.83, forward P/E 186.41, P/B 17.64, EV/EBITDA 157.16 and dividend yield n/a; the 52-week range is $297.38–$498.83 and shares outstanding 3.95 billion. MarketBeat shows higher multiples (P/E 553.18, forward P/E 368.98) due to different earnings definitions, so the exact multiple depends on the aggregator's methodology.
Tesla's Q3 2026 results (reported October 21, 2026) showed revenue of $28,046 million (roughly flat YoY), GAAP operating income of $718 million (down 56%), GAAP net income of $787 million (down 43%), GAAP EPS of $0.22 vs $0.39 a year earlier, non-GAAP EPS of $0.48 vs $0.50, on 486,532 deliveries (down 2%), with regulatory credit revenue collapsing to $113 million from $417 million.
High confidenceTesla's 8-K Exhibit 99.1 (Q3 2026 Update) filed with the SEC on Oct 21, 2026 reports total revenues $28,046M, automotive $20,560M, energy $2,881M, services $4,605M, operating income $718M, net income $787M, GAAP diluted EPS $0.22, non-GAAP EPS $0.48, deliveries 486,532 and regulatory credits $113M. Secondary sources report the $0.48 adjusted EPS beat a ~$0.44 consensus while revenue was roughly in line, with consensus revenue cited variously at $27.88B and $28.44B.
Tesla generated $6,263 million of operating cash flow and $1,531 million of free cash flow in Q3 2026 (down 62% YoY) after $4,732 million of capex, ended the quarter with $45,447 million of cash and investments against $9,265 million of non-recourse and $2 million of recourse debt (stockanalysis.com shows $16.45B total debt including leases and a $29.0B net cash position), and cut 2026 capex guidance back to 'approximately $20 billion' from 'in excess of $25 billion' after spending $13.014 billion in the first nine months.
High confidenceThe SEC-filed Q3 2026 Update lists operating cash flow $6,263M, capex $4,732M, free cash flow $1,531M, cash and investments $45,447M and debt of $9,265M non-recourse / $2M recourse; stockanalysis.com reports TTM free cash flow of $3.30B, total debt $16.45B and net cash $29.00B; money365 quotes the CFO revising 2026 capex guidance to approximately $20 billion and nine-month capex of $13.014B versus $8.530B for all of 2025.
At $398.50 TSLA trades at 437.8x trailing and 186.4x forward earnings, 15.2x sales and 157x EV/EBITDA on a $1.58T market cap, versus General Motors at 20.9x trailing and 6.3x forward earnings on a $74.5B market cap.
High confidencestockanalysis.com's Nov 3, 2026 statistics pages give the TSLA and GM multiples; the gap reflects that TSLA's TTM EPS is only $0.91 on $103.57B of revenue, so the market is pricing robotaxi, energy and Optimus optionality rather than current auto earnings. A cited 5-year P/E history was not retrievable from these sources.
Relative to peer General Motors, Tesla trades at 437.83x trailing and 186.41x forward earnings, 17.64x book and 157.16x EV/EBITDA versus GM's 20.90x trailing, 6.32x forward, 1.19x book and 9.43x EV/EBITDA, while GM's $74.52 billion market cap is about 5% of Tesla's $1.58 trillion despite GM's $14.40 billion TTM free cash flow being roughly 4x Tesla's $3.30 billion.
High confidenceStockanalysis.com's GM statistics page (updated Nov 4, 2026) lists price $88.34, market cap $74.52B, EV $177.42B, trailing P/E 20.90, forward P/E 6.32, P/B 1.19, EV/EBITDA 9.43, dividend yield 0.82%, TTM FCF $14.40B and total debt $130.71B; the TSLA statistics page from the same aggregator gives the comparable Tesla figures. GM's large debt is mostly GM Financial, which inflates its EV relative to market cap.
Wall Street is split: stockanalysis.com tallies 44 analysts with a 'Buy' consensus (15 Strong Buy, 5 Buy, 22 Hold, 0 Sell, 2 Strong Sell) and an average 12-month target of $413.10 (+3.66% from $398.50) spanning $128.11 to $600, MarketBeat shows 49 analysts at 'Moderate Buy' with a $414.51 consensus target, Barclays upgraded to Overweight with a $450 target on October 28, 2026, and FY2026 consensus calls for revenue of $107.79 billion (+13.67%) and EPS of $1.74 (+4.85%).
High confidenceStockanalysis.com's forecast page dated Oct 29, 2026 gives the 44-analyst rating breakdown, average/high/low targets of $413.1/$600/$128.11 and FY2026 revenue and EPS forecasts; MarketBeat's TSLA page lists 49 analysts, Moderate Buy, $414.51 consensus target and the Barclays Overweight/$450 upgrade dated Oct 28, 2026. Half the covering analysts rate the stock Hold and the average target implies little upside from the current price.
Technically TSLA at $398.50 is sitting just below its 20-day ($401.82) and 50-day ($401.60) simple moving averages but above its 100-day ($386.37) and 200-day ($378.00), with a 14-day RSI of 44.8 and MACD of -0.432, while near-term catalysts and risks include the November 2 Fort Worth Robotaxi expansion, nearly 2 million cumulative robotaxi miles after unsupervised Cybercab rides began in Austin on September 3, 1.74 million paid FSD subscriptions (+67% YoY), the start of Optimus production in Fremont, October China sales up 10.3% YoY but down 28.9% from September, and ongoing SpaceX-merger speculation.
Medium confidenceInvesting.com's technical page as of Nov 3, 2026 lists the 20/50/100/200-day SMAs at 401.82/401.60/386.37/378.00, RSI 44.804 and MACD -0.432; heygotrade's Nov 4 note cites the Fort Worth Robotaxi launch, the China October sales figures and the tokenized-stock objection as the items in focus, and money365's 10-Q analysis quotes the Austin Cybercab launch date, ~2 million robotaxi miles, 1.74 million FSD subscriptions and Optimus production start. Technical readings are from aggregators and change daily.
Tesla's Q3 2026 revenue was $28.05B (flat year over year), non-GAAP EPS was $0.48 versus a $0.45 consensus, but GAAP net income fell 43% to $787M ($0.22/share) and operating income fell 56% to $718M as operating margin compressed to 2.6% from 5.8%, even though gross margin improved 160 bp to 19.6%.
High confidenceElectrek's breakdown of the Q3 shareholder deck and MarketBeat's earnings report both show the $28.05B revenue and $0.48 EPS beat alongside the sharp declines in operating and net income driven by AI/Optimus opex growth.
Q3 free cash flow was $1.53B versus $3.99B a year earlier, capex was $4.73B in the quarter and $13.01B year to date against guidance of 'more than $25B' for the year, with $45.4B of cash and investments on hand and management citing battery availability as the limiting factor on production.
High confidenceElectrek reports the FCF, capex, cash and battery-constraint statements from the Q3 release; CNBC's roundup shows Goldman and Truist flagging the capex/opex burden on FCF as the main bear point and Deutsche Bank citing record Megapack orders and backlog as the main bull point.
Q3 2026 earnings were flattered by one-time IEEPA tariff refunds worth a net ~$447 million to gross profit ($526M cut to energy cost of revenues and $260M cut to automotive cost of revenues, partly offset by a $339M reduction in energy revenue owed to customers), meaning GAAP operating income of $718 million would have been roughly $270 million without the refunds; the quarter also carried $1,165 million of stock-based compensation (up 76% YoY, including the 2025 CEO Performance Award) and a $142 million unrealized loss on the SpaceX stake.
Medium confidenceThe money365 analysis of the Q3 10-Q quotes the $526M/$260M/$339M tariff-refund components and CFO Vaibhav Taneja's statement that sequential margin improvement was 'primarily attributed to tariff refunds recognized in the quarter and warranty true-downs'; Tesla's 10-Q for the period ended Sept 30, 2026 carries an 'IEEPA Tariff Refund' XBRL tag on both the energy and automotive segments, and the 8-K exhibit confirms SBC of $1,165M and the $142M SpaceX unrealized loss. The exact dollar split is from a secondary source and could not be independently read in the 10-Q text, hence medium confidence.
Tesla's current trailing P/E sits near the top of its own 5-year range: year-end P/E was about 190 in 2021, 30.6 in 2022, 52.6 in 2023, 181 in 2024 and 381 in 2025, with the November 2026 TTM reading at 338 on companiesmarketcap's methodology (437.83 on stockanalysis.com), so the stock is roughly 6-11x more expensive on earnings than at its 2022 trough and well above its 2021-2024 levels.
Medium confidenceCompaniesmarketcap.com's P/E history page lists annual values of 964 (2020), 190 (2021), 30.6 (2022), 52.6 (2023), 181 (2024), 381 (2025) and 338 as of November 2026; GuruFocus's search snippet characterizes the TTM P/E as about 150% above its historical median. Methodologies differ across aggregators, so the level is directionally reliable but the exact figure varies.
As of the Oct 29, 2026 update, 44 analysts covering TSLA split 15 Strong Buy, 5 Buy, 22 Hold, 0 Sell and 2 Strong Sell, for a 'Buy' consensus with an average 12-month target of $413.10 (+3.7% vs the Nov 3 close of $398.50), a median of $436 (+9.4%), and a range of $128.11 to $600.
High confidenceThe stockanalysis.com forecast page lists the 44-analyst rating breakdown, average/median/low/high targets and the $398.50 Nov 3, 2026 close; half the covering analysts are at Hold, so the 'Buy' label rests on the Strong Buy cohort.
In late October 2026 (reported Oct 22-26), Barclays upgraded TSLA to Overweight from Equal Weight and raised its target to $450 from $370, roughly 12.9% above the $398.50 Nov 3 close, citing the SpaceX merger opportunity, a stronger core business outlook and signs of a Robotaxi inflection.
Medium confidenceTipRanks/The Fly and GuruFocus both report the Equal Weight-to-Overweight upgrade and the $370-to-$450 target with the same three reasons; the two sources date the call differently (Oct 22 vs Oct 26), hence medium confidence on timing.
After the Oct 21 Q3 report, major-bank targets ranged from HSBC's Reduce/$157 (about 61% below the $398.50 close) and Goldman Sachs' Neutral/$360 (about 10% below) to Morgan Stanley's Equal Weight/$410 (raised from $400, +2.9%), JPMorgan's Neutral/$430 (raised from $415, +7.9%), Truist's Hold/$370 and Canaccord's Buy/$442 (+10.9%).
Medium confidenceCNBC's post-earnings analyst roundup lists the Goldman, HSBC, Truist, Morgan Stanley and Canaccord ratings/targets; the JPMorgan $415-to-$430 and Morgan Stanley $400-to-$410 moves come from an aggregator whose rating labels are internally inconsistent, so those two figures carry lower confidence. Percentages are computed against the $398.50 Nov 3 close.
The Q3 EPS beat was flattered by non-operating items: a $288M unrealized gain on Bitcoin holdings offset partly by a $142M unrealized loss on Tesla's SpaceX equity stake, while regulatory-credit revenue fell 73% to $113M from $417M a year earlier.
High confidenceElectrek itemizes the Bitcoin mark-to-market gain, the SpaceX investment loss and the regulatory-credit decline from the Q3 release; the net ~$146M of unrealized gains is roughly 19% of the $787M GAAP net income and should be excluded when judging core earnings power.
Technically, TSLA's $398.50 close sits above its 50-day ($371.41) and 200-day ($384.93) moving averages but 20% below the $498.83 52-week high and 34% above the $297.38 52-week low, with the stock down 12.7% over 52 weeks, short interest at 2.46% of float, and shares slipping from $386.47 to $377.88 after hours on the Q3 print.
Medium confidencestockanalysis.com supplies the moving averages, 52-week range, 52-week change and short interest as of Nov 3, 2026; Investing.com reports the post-earnings after-hours decline. Moving-average posture is from a single aggregator and may differ slightly by data vendor.
Sources (24)
- https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1318605/000162828026066738/exhibit9914.htmfundamentalsPrimary
- https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1318605/000162828026066775/tsla-20260930.htmfundamentalsPrimary
- https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1318605/000162828026066738/0001628280-26-066738-index.htmfundamentalsPrimary
- https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/tsla/statistics/fundamentalsSecondary
- https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/tsla/fundamentalsSecondary
- https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/tsla/forecast/fundamentalsSecondary
- https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/gm/statistics/fundamentalsSecondary
- https://www.marketbeat.com/stocks/NASDAQ/TSLA/fundamentalsSecondary
- https://www.investing.com/equities/tesla-motors-technicalfundamentalsSecondary
- https://companiesmarketcap.com/tesla/pe-ratio/fundamentalsSecondary
- https://www.gurufocus.com/term/pettm/TSLAfundamentalsSecondary
- https://driveteslacanada.ca/news/tesla-q3-2026-earnings-results/fundamentalsSecondary
- https://www.money365.market/articles/tesla-q3-2026-earnings-analysisfundamentalsSecondary
- https://tickeron.com/blogs/tesla-tsla-q3-2026-results-revenue-and-eps-beats-mask-sharp-profit-drop-20405/fundamentalsSecondary
- https://heygotrade.com/en/news/tesla-tsla-stock-news-november-4-2026fundamentalsSecondary
- https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/gm/analyst_targetsSecondary
- https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/22/tesla-q3-2026-earnings-analysts.htmlanalyst_targetsSecondary
- https://www.tipranks.com/news/the-fly/tesla-upgraded-block-downgraded-wall-streets-top-analyst-calls-thefly-newsanalyst_targetsSecondary
- https://www.gurufocus.com/news/9142388/tsla-upgraded-by-barclays-price-target-raised-to-450analyst_targetsSecondary
- https://electrek.co/2026/10/21/tesla-tsla-q3-2026-financial-results/analyst_targetsSecondary
- https://www.marketbeat.com/earnings/reports/2026-10-21-tesla-inc-stock/analyst_targetsSecondary
- https://www.investing.com/news/transcripts/earnings-call-transcript-tesla-beats-q3-2026-estimates-as-stock-slips-after-hours-93CH-4964365analyst_targetsSecondary
- https://www.theglobeandmail.com/investing/markets/stocks/TSLA/pressreleases/8460632/american-analyst-updates-oct-26th-2026/analyst_targetsSecondary
- https://www.dailypolitical.com/2026/11/02/tesla-tsla-analysts-weekly-ratings-changes.htmlanalyst_targetsUnreliable
Caveats
All prices, multiples and technical readings are as of the November 3, 2026 close and change daily; the report date is November 4, 2026. Valuation multiples differ materially by aggregator (stockanalysis.com trailing P/E 437.83 vs MarketBeat 553.18 vs companiesmarketcap 338) because of different earnings definitions, so the level is directionally reliable but the exact figure is not; the 5-year P/E history comes from a single secondary source and was not retrievable from a primary filing. Moving-average levels also disagree between Investing.com and stockanalysis.com. The $526M/$260M/$339M tariff-refund breakdown is from a secondary analysis of the 10-Q and could not be independently read in the filing text, so the ~$447M net benefit and the ~$270M ex-refund operating income estimate carry medium confidence; the 10-Q's IEEPA Tariff Refund XBRL tags do confirm the item exists. Consensus EPS for Q3 is cited variously at $0.44 and $0.45 and consensus revenue at $27.88B and $28.44B. The Barclays upgrade is dated October 22, 26 or 28 depending on the source, and the JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley target changes come from an aggregator with internally inconsistent labels. Capex guidance is reported as 'approximately $20B' by one source and 'more than $25B' by another, reflecting a reported mid-quarter revision; the lower figure is the more recent. Several items (robotaxi miles, FSD subscription counts, Optimus production start, China monthly sales, SpaceX-merger speculation) are from secondary sources rather than SEC filings. Not covered: segment-level margin detail beyond the headline figures, Q4 guidance specifics, the terms or likelihood of any SpaceX transaction, regulatory or legal developments, option-market positioning, and any news after November 4, 2026. Primary sources used are the Q3 2026 8-K exhibit and 10-Q on sec.gov; stockanalysis.com, MarketBeat, Investing.com, CNBC, Electrek and companiesmarketcap are secondary aggregators; heygotrade, money365, tickeron and dailypolitical are lower-tier secondary sources. This is not investment advice and contains no buy, sell or hold recommendation.
This report is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice. No buy / sell / hold recommendation is made or implied.