Stockalyze
Example report. Sign up to run the same analysis on any ticker.
TSLA logoTSLAEquity research

Report date: 2026-06-03

$307.44-1.78 (-0.58%)Live · delayed quote, informational only

Analysis focus

Provide a balanced, comprehensive analysis: fundamentals and valuation, the Wall Street view, technical posture, and the key forward risks and catalysts.

Summary

Tesla trades around $422 in early June 2026 with a market cap near $1.4-1.6 trillion and a trailing P/E around 380x (forward P/E roughly 193-215x), valuation multiples that resemble a high-growth tech stock rather than an automaker that trades at single-digit-to-low-teen P/Es. The bull case rests on a Q1 2026 margin rebound (GAAP gross margin 21.1%, automotive gross margin ex-credits 19.2% versus 12.5% a year earlier), 16% revenue growth to $22.39B, a non-GAAP EPS beat ($0.41 vs $0.34 consensus), a strong $44.7B cash balance, and optionality from robotaxi/FSD and Optimus, which Wedbush argues now drives the valuation (it set a $600 target). The bear case is that the core auto business is stagnating: deliveries of 358,023 grew only 6.3% and missed consensus, full-year EV sales fell a record 9% in 2025, and much of the Q1 margin improvement came from one-time items rather than durable operations. Quality-of-earnings is the central skeptic concern. Tesla's swing in operating income from $399M (Q1 2025) to $941M (Q1 2026) was led by roughly $250M in tariff refunds (tied to the Supreme Court's February 2026 IEEPA ruling) and about $230M in warranty reserve releases, and the company has not quantified how much margin gain is sustainable. Regulatory-credit revenue, historically a low-quality earnings source, fell to $380M (1.9% of auto revenue, down from 3.7%), removing a past crutch but not the one-time auto benefits. Q1 free cash flow was about $1.4B, but management guided to negative FCF for the rest of 2026 on a $25B+ capex ramp. Wall Street is split: consensus sits near Hold/Neutral with an average 12-month target clustering around $390-412, but the bull/bear range is extreme (lows near $25 to a $600 high). Morgan Stanley downgraded to Equal-weight on stretched valuation in late 2025 (while nudging its target to $425) and models a ~10.5% 2026 delivery decline, whereas Wedbush is at $600 on autonomy/AI. Forward risks include demand softness and price competition (BYD outsold Tesla in Germany and sells full-featured EVs cheaply), FSD/robotaxi execution and regulation (the unsupervised fleet is still only ~20-39 vehicles and Musk says robotaxi revenue won't be material until 2027), Musk key-man/political risk, and the stock's heavy dependence on non-auto bets to justify its multiple.

Findings (16)

TSLA traded around $422-424 in early June 2026 with a market cap of roughly $1.4-1.6 trillion and a trailing P/E near 380x.

High confidence

Multiple quote aggregators report a price of ~$422 and a trailing P/E of ~380x; market-cap estimates ranged $1.31T-$1.59T depending on timestamp.

finance.yahoo.comstockanalysis.comcapital.com

Tesla's forward P/E was approximately 193-215x as of early June 2026, far above the auto-industry median (~14x), confirming a tech-style multiple.

High confidence

GuruFocus lists a 215x forward P/E (~1,439% above the Vehicles & Parts median of 13.98); another source cited ~193x.

gurufocus.comfullratio.com

Tesla Q1 2026 revenue was $22.39B (up 16% YoY) but missed the ~$22.64B consensus, while non-GAAP EPS of $0.41 beat the $0.34 estimate and GAAP EPS was $0.13.

High confidence

CNBC and TIKR report the revenue beat-to-miss split: top-line slightly below consensus, bottom-line non-GAAP above consensus.

cnbc.comtikr.com

Q1 2026 deliveries were 358,023 vehicles, up only 6.3% YoY and below consensus, after full-year EV sales fell a record ~9% in 2025.

High confidence

Earnings coverage cites 358,023 deliveries (+6.3%) as the main revenue-miss driver; CNN reports the record ~9% 2025 EV sales decline.

coindcx.comedition.cnn.com

Q1 2026 automotive gross margin excluding regulatory credits rose to 19.2%, up sharply from ~12.5% a year earlier, while total GAAP gross margin was 21.1%.

High confidence

Earnings recap reports ex-credit auto gross margin of 19.2% (vs 12.5% prior-year) and 21.1% total GAAP gross margin; Electrek corroborates the 19.2% figure.

coindcx.comelectrek.co

Regulatory-credit revenue fell to $380M in Q1 2026, about 1.9% of automotive revenue, down from ~3.7% a year earlier.

High confidence

The earnings recap explicitly states regulatory credits dropped to $380M and 1.9% of auto revenue, down from 3.7%.

coindcx.com

Tesla's Q1 2026 operating-income jump from $399M to $941M was led by roughly $250M in tariff refunds and ~$230M in warranty reserve releases, both one-time items.

Medium confidence

Electrek reports Tesla itself listed 'automotive one-time benefits related to warranty and tariffs' as the #1 driver of the operating-income increase, quantifying ~$250M tariff refunds and ~$230M warranty write-downs; tariff refunds tie to the Feb 2026 Supreme Court IEEPA ruling.

electrek.conews.alphastreet.com

Tesla ended Q1 2026 with $44.7B in cash and investments and ~$1.4B of free cash flow, but guided to negative FCF for the rest of 2026 on $25B+ planned capex.

High confidence

TIKR/Alphastreet report $44.7B cash, ~$1.4B Q1 FCF, and management guidance for negative FCF for the remainder of 2026 amid a $25B+ capex ramp.

tikr.comnews.alphastreet.com

Tesla's energy generation and storage revenue was $2.408B in Q1 2026 (down 12% YoY) with 8.8 GWh of storage deployed (a 38% sequential decline).

Medium confidence

Earnings-call coverage reports $2.408B energy revenue (-12% YoY) and 8.8 GWh deployed (-38% QoQ); services and other revenue rose 42% to $3.745B.

ca.investing.comnotateslaapp.com

Wall Street consensus is roughly Hold/Neutral with an average 12-month target near $390-412 and an extreme range from ~$25 to $600.

High confidence

Aggregators report consensus targets clustering $389-412 with high $600 and low ~$25, and mixed Buy/Hold/Sell distributions (e.g., 20 Buy / 17 Hold / 8 Sell across 61 analysts).

stockanalysis.commarketbeat.comtipranks.com

Morgan Stanley downgraded Tesla to Equal-weight from Overweight on stretched valuation, modeling a ~10.5% 2026 delivery decline while raising its target to $425; Wedbush set a $600 target on autonomy/AI on April 23, 2026.

High confidence

Yahoo/Benzinga report the Morgan Stanley downgrade to Equal-weight (target raised to $425, ~10.5% 2026 delivery decline forecast); coverage cites Wedbush's $600 target premised on robotaxi/Dojo.

finance.yahoo.combenzinga.com

As of early June 2026, TSLA traded above its 50-day (~$408) and 200-day (~$395) EMAs with RSI(14) near 64, support ~$417-420 and resistance ~$427 (and a higher ~$450 zone).

Medium confidence

Technical recap from June 3, 2026 shows price above EMA20/50/200, RSI ~63.6, daily pivot ~$420.5, resistance ~$427.4, support ~$416.9; momentum showing near-term exhaustion near $450.

en.cryptonomist.ch

TSLA's total return was about +24.9% over the trailing 12 months but roughly -5.3% year-to-date in 2026.

Medium confidence

Performance trackers report ~+24.9% TTM total return and ~-5.3% YTD as of the search date.

financecharts.comytdreturn.com

Tesla's robotaxi service expanded across the entire Austin metro and launched unsupervised rides in Dallas and Houston (April 20, 2026), but the unsupervised fleet remains only ~20-39 vehicles and Musk says robotaxi revenue won't be material until 2027.

High confidence

Electrek (June 3, 2026) reports full Austin-metro coverage with only ~20 active vehicles (other trackers cite ~39); earnings coverage notes Musk said robotaxi revenue would not be material in 2026, pushing meaningful contribution to 2027.

electrek.coheygotrade.com

Competitive pressure is intensifying: BYD outsold Tesla in Germany (BYD ~23,306 vs Tesla ~19,390 in 2025) and BYD sold ~2.26M pure EVs in 2025, with capacity to profitably sell full-featured EVs cheaply.

Medium confidence

Coverage cites BYD's German sales surging past Tesla's halved volume and ~2.26M BYD pure-EV 2025 sales, framing margin/share pressure especially in China and Europe.

ts2.techedition.cnn.com

Tesla's historical trailing P/E has ranged widely (306.7x in 2021, 34.8x in 2022, 73.2x in 2023, 100.2x in 2024), consistently far above traditional automakers' single-digit-to-low-teens multiples.

Medium confidence

Historical P/E series shows 2021-2024 values of 306.7/34.8/73.2/100.2x; even the 2022 low (~35x) far exceeds legacy-auto multiples, supporting the tech-multiple framing.

fullratio.compublic.com

Sources (24)

Caveats

Highly time-sensitive: price, market cap, P/E, EMAs, RSI, and price targets move daily and were captured intraday on 2026-06-03; treat exact figures as snapshots. Market-cap quotes varied across sources ($1.31T-$1.59T) due to differing timestamps. SEC primary sources (8-K exhibit 99.1 and 10-Q) were located but could not be fetched directly (HTTP 403), so most quantitative figures were verified via secondary aggregators and earnings coverage rather than read from the filings themselves; the one-time tariff (~$250M) and warranty (~$230M) figures derive from Electrek's analysis and carry medium confidence. Some figures (forward P/E ~193 vs ~215, exact 50/200-day MA vs EMA conventions) differ by source and methodology. The 6-month return was not directly reported and is omitted. No buy/sell/hold view is expressed; this is balanced evidence only, not investment advice.

This report is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice. No buy / sell / hold recommendation is made or implied.

Want this on your watchlist?

Add your own focus, pick a delivery speed, and get a source-verified report like this one.