Report date: 2026-11-05
Analysis focus
Provide a balanced, comprehensive analysis: fundamentals and valuation, the Wall Street view, technical posture, and the key forward risks and catalysts.
Summary
Findings (24)
Qualcomm's Q1 FY2027 guidance of $10.4B–$11.2B revenue and $2.15–$2.35 non-GAAP EPS brackets consensus at the midpoint on revenue but has a midpoint EPS of $2.25 versus the ~$2.27 analyst estimate, and the guide embeds a 3-percentage-point headwind to QCT EBT margin from moving the Data Center business into QCT.
High confidenceThe 8-K guidance table shows total revenue $10.4–11.2B, QCT $9.0–9.6B, QTL $1.3–1.5B and non-GAAP EPS $2.15–2.35; CNBC cites consensus of $2.27 EPS on $10.48B; the earnings call transcript attributes a 3pt QCT EBT margin impact to the Data Center segmentation change with no effect on the 30% long-term QCT EBT target.
FY2026 GAAP EPS of $12.70 exceeded non-GAAP EPS of $10.54 almost entirely because of a one-time $5.7B income tax benefit from a valuation allowance release, so QCOM's trailing P/E of 13.64 is artificially depressed; the forward P/E of 17.05 is the cleaner multiple, versus Broadcom's trailing P/E of 41.55.
High confidenceThe 8-K exhibit shows FY2026 GAAP EPS $12.70 vs non-GAAP $10.54 and lists the $5.7B tax valuation-allowance benefit, plus Q4 exclusions of $235M restructuring and $141M acquisition-related charges and a $120M FY2026 legal settlement paid to a customer. stockanalysis lists QCOM at 13.64x trailing / 17.05x forward and AVGO at 41.55x trailing.
QCOM closed at $173.19 on November 4, 2026 (+5.33%) for a market cap of $184.94B and enterprise value of $192.37B, then fell 7.52% in after-hours trading to $160.16 after fiscal Q4 results, leaving it far below its 52-week high of $259.92 (52-week range $121.99–$259.92).
High confidenceThe stockanalysis.com quote page timestamps the $173.19 close at Nov 4, 2026 4:00 PM EST and the $160.16 after-hours print at 7:59 PM EST; the statistics page lists market cap $184.94B and EV $192.37B. Note other aggregators showed $160–$164 intraday quotes earlier in the week, so the pre-earnings close was an up day into the print.
Fiscal Q4 2026 (quarter ended September 27, 2026) GAAP revenue was $10.3B, down 8% year over year, with GAAP diluted EPS of $1.17 and non-GAAP EPS of $2.17 on non-GAAP revenue of $10.4B (down 7%), versus consensus of roughly $2.16 EPS on $10.12B.
High confidenceQualcomm's 8-K earnings exhibit reports Q4 GAAP revenues of $10.3B (-8%), GAAP net income $1.3B, GAAP EPS $1.17, non-GAAP net income $2.3B and non-GAAP EPS $2.17; the secondary report frames $10.32B revenue and $2.17 non-GAAP EPS against $10.12B / $2.16 estimates. Revenue declined despite the headline beat.
Fiscal 2026 GAAP net income of $13.6B (+146%) and GAAP diluted EPS of $12.70 (+153%) were inflated by a $5.7B income tax benefit from releasing a valuation allowance, while non-GAAP EPS of $10.54 actually fell 12% — meaning the 13.64x trailing P/E is roughly 16.4x when computed on non-GAAP earnings.
High confidenceThe 8-K exhibit discloses the $5.7B tax benefit from a valuation allowance release alongside GAAP EPS of $12.70 versus non-GAAP EPS of $10.54 on FY26 revenue of $43.1B (-3%). Dividing the $173.19 close by the $10.54 non-GAAP figure gives ~16.4x, versus the 13.64x trailing P/E screened on GAAP EPS — the GAAP number is a non-cash, non-recurring tax item, not operating improvement.
Against peer Broadcom (AVGO), QCOM is markedly cheaper on asset and cash-flow multiples — EV/EBITDA 18.70x vs 30.41x, P/B 6.62x vs 15.59x, P/S 4.29x vs 17.44x, dividend yield 2.13% vs 0.80% — but the forward P/E gap is narrow at 17.05x vs 18.70x, and AVGO generates $39.40B of free cash flow versus QCOM's $8.65B.
High confidenceParallel statistics pages give AVGO a $1.55T market cap, 41.55x trailing / 18.70x forward P/E, 30.41x EV/EBITDA, 15.59x P/B, 17.44x P/S, 0.80% yield and $39.40B FCF, versus QCOM's $184.94B cap, 13.64x trailing / 17.05x forward P/E, 18.70x EV/EBITDA, 6.62x P/B, 4.29x P/S, 2.13% yield and $8.65B FCF. The discount is on current multiples; the near-identical forward P/Es show the market expects very different earnings trajectories.
Fiscal 2026 operating cash flow was $11.15B against $2.5B of capex for roughly $8.65B of free cash flow, with $15.11B total debt versus $7.68B total cash (net debt about $7.43B), while Qualcomm returned $7.8B via repurchase of 48M shares and $3.9B in dividends ($3.62 per share), and the current annualized dividend of $3.68 yields 2.13% at a 42.8% payout ratio.
High confidenceThe 8-K exhibit reports FY26 operating cash flow of $11.1B, capex $2.5B, cash and equivalents $4.6B, total debt $15.1B, $7.8B of buybacks covering 48M shares and $3.9B of dividends at $3.62/share; the statistics page reports $8.65B FCF, $7.68B total cash (including investments), -$7.43B net cash, $3.68 forward dividend, 2.13% yield and 42.82% payout. No dividend cut is evident — the $3.68 run rate is above FY26's $3.62 paid.
FY2026 segment mix shifted away from the core: handset revenue fell 13% to $24.1B while automotive rose 52% to $6.0B (including a record ~$2B quarter and an exit annualized run rate of about $8B, above the prior $7B guide), IoT rose 8% to $7.1B, and QTL licensing was roughly flat at $5.6B.
High confidenceThe 8-K exhibit breaks out QCT handsets $24.1B (-13%), automotive $6.0B (+52%), IoT $7.1B (+8%) and QTL $5.6B (flat); management commentary on the Q4 call cites automotive growth near 90% in the quarter and the ~$8B exit run rate versus $7B previously guided. Automotive and IoT are the stated offsets to handset erosion, which includes the loss of Apple modem content.
Q1 FY2027 guidance of $10.4–$11.2B revenue (QCT $9.0–$9.6B, QTL $1.3–$1.5B) and non-GAAP EPS of $2.15–$2.35 was received as a soft EPS/margin outlook — shares dropped about 5–7.5% after hours — and the stock now trades below both its 50-day (~$177.98) and 200-day (~$169.42) moving averages, with analyst consensus at Hold and post-print targets spanning Bernstein's cut to $155 from $165, Susquehanna's raise to $185 from $160, and TD Cowen's raise to $200 from $175.
Medium confidenceThe 8-K gives the Q1 FY27 revenue, QCT/QTL and $2.15–$2.35 non-GAAP EPS ranges; stockanalysis.com news flags memory cost pressure and data center mix weighing on handset and gross-margin outlook plus the after-hours decline; MarketBeat lists the 50-day $177.98 and 200-day $169.42 averages and broker target changes; TipRanks shows a Hold consensus with an average target near $197 pre-print (other tallies cite ~$205). Confidence is medium because moving-average levels and consensus targets come from secondary aggregators and shift daily, and the $155–$200 target spread shows genuine disagreement on the Apple-loss and memory-cost offsets.
Qualcomm reported fiscal Q4 2026 (quarter ended Sept 27, 2026) non-GAAP revenue of $10,442M (-7% YoY) and non-GAAP diluted EPS of $2.17 (-28% YoY), narrowly beating the $2.16 consensus EPS while revenue landed slightly below consensus, and the stock fell ~7% in extended trading on Nov 4, 2026.
High confidenceThe company's 8-K earnings exhibit filed with the SEC states Q4 non-GAAP revenues of $10,442M and non-GAAP diluted EPS of $2.17 (GAAP: $10,322M revenue, $1.17 EPS); CNBC reports the $2.17 vs $2.16 estimate and the ~7% after-hours decline.
Qualcomm's trailing GAAP EPS of $12.70 for FY2026 (+153% YoY) is inflated by a one-time $5.7 billion income tax benefit from a valuation-allowance release, and Q4 GAAP results also absorbed $235M of restructuring and $141M of acquisition-related charges — so the 13.64x trailing P/E materially understates normalized valuation versus the 17.05x forward P/E.
High confidenceThe SEC-filed earnings exhibit explicitly discloses the $5.7B tax benefit from release of a valuation allowance within FY2026 GAAP EPS of $12.70 (non-GAAP FY2026 EPS was $10.54, -12% YoY) plus the $235M restructuring and $141M acquisition charges; stockanalysis.com lists trailing P/E 13.64 against forward P/E 17.05, an inversion consistent with GAAP EPS being one-time-boosted and forward earnings being flat-to-lower.
Wall Street consensus on QCOM is 'Hold' across 37 analysts, with an average 12-month price target of $197.03 (+13.8% vs the $173.19 Nov 4 close), a median of $180 (+3.9%), and a very wide range from $100 (-42%) to $400 (+131%).
High confidenceThe stockanalysis.com forecast page aggregates 37 analysts at a Hold consensus with $197.03 average, $180 median, $100 low and $400 high targets against a $173.19 last price; the ~$17 gap between average and median shows the mean is pulled up by a single $400 outlier, so the median is the more representative central estimate.
FY2026 revenue mix shifted sharply away from handsets: QCT handset revenue fell 13% to $24,072M (with Q4 handset chip sales down 26% YoY to $5.14B, missing the $5.21B StreetAccount estimate), while automotive rose 52% to $6,004M and IoT rose 8% to $7,132M; QTL licensing was flat at $5,556M.
High confidenceSegment detail in the SEC-filed 8-K exhibit gives FY2026 QCT of $37,208M (-3%) split into handsets $24,072M (-13%), automotive $6,004M (+52%), IoT $7,132M (+8%), and QTL $5,556M (flat); CNBC reports the Q4 handset figure of $5.14B, -26% YoY, versus the $5.21B StreetAccount estimate.
QCOM closed at $173.19 on Nov 4, 2026 (+5.33% that session), leaving it below its 50-day SMA of $178.23 but marginally above its 200-day SMA of $169.65; the post-earnings after-hours print of $160.16 (-7.52%) puts the stock below both averages.
High confidencestockanalysis.com's quote page shows the Nov 4 close of $173.19 and the $160.16 after-hours quote, while its statistics page lists the 50-day SMA at $178.23 and the 200-day SMA at $169.65.
The decline was driven by guidance, not the quarter: fiscal Q4 2026 (ended Sept 27, 2026) non-GAAP revenue of $10.4B (-7% YoY) and non-GAAP EPS of $2.17 came in at the high end of guidance and above consensus, but Q1 FY2027 guidance of $2.15–$2.35 EPS on $10.4–$11.2B revenue straddled the $2.27 consensus EPS, and the stock fell about 7% after hours.
High confidenceThe company's 8-K earnings exhibit confirms Q4 non-GAAP revenue of $10.4B (-7%), non-GAAP EPS $2.17, and Q1 FY2027 guidance of $10.4–$11.2B revenue / $2.15–$2.35 non-GAAP EPS; CNBC reports the consensus at $2.27 EPS on $10.48B and the ~7% extended-hours drop, attributing it to memory-cost and margin-mix pressure.
Segment mix is diverging sharply: Q4 FY2026 handset revenue fell 26% YoY to $5.1B while automotive rose 89% to $2.0B, IoT rose 4% to $1.9B, data center contributed $650M, and management guided to roughly $5B of data center revenue in FY2027.
High confidenceThe 8-K exhibit itemizes Q4 QCT revenue of $9.0B (-8%) with handsets $5.1B (-26%), automotive $2.0B (+89%) and IoT $1.9B (+4%); CNBC reports the $650M data center quarter, the $5B FY2027 data center target, and CEO Cristiano Amon's comment that data center is 'a supply issue,' not a demand issue.
Wall Street is positioned neutrally: a consensus 'Hold' from 37 analysts with an average 12-month target of about $197.03 (roughly 14% above the Nov 4 close), targets spanning $100 to $400, with Bernstein cutting to $155 (Market Perform) and Susquehanna raising to $185 (Neutral) ahead of the print.
Medium confidencestockanalysis reports 37 analysts, Hold consensus, $197.03 average target; MarketBeat shows 39 analysts at $205.48 and ChartMill 49 analysts at $201.29, so the dispersion in survey panels is wide even though all three cluster around $197–$205 and a Hold rating. The Bernstein and Susquehanna target changes appear in the same aggregated analyst-action coverage and are not independently confirmed against the brokers' own notes.
On EV/EBITDA of 18.70x, QCOM sits at the top of its own recent range (FY2022 8.74x, FY2023 12.14x, FY2024 15.98x, FY2025 13.32x), even though its 13.64x trailing P/E and 17.05x forward P/E screen as mid-range versus FY2022–FY2025 trailing P/Es of 10.52x, 16.62x, 18.69x and 32.78x.
Medium confidenceThe ratios-history page tabulates fiscal-year P/E, forward P/E, P/S, P/B, EV/EBITDA and EV/Sales from FY2022 to current, showing current EV/EBITDA of 18.70x above every fiscal-year reading since FY2022 while P/B of 6.62x is near its FY2022–FY2026 midpoint. Confidence is medium because the fiscal-year ratios are distorted by the FY2025 charge and FY2026 tax benefit flowing through both earnings and EBITDA, and the data is a secondary aggregator.
Recent analyst actions in the last ~90 days are two-way and concentrated among specialists rather than bulge-bracket banks: Bernstein's Stacy Rasgon cut his target to $155 from $165 (Hold) on Nov 2, 2026 on weak smartphone data points, Susquehanna's Christopher Rolland raised his to $185 from $160 (Hold) on Oct 21, 2026, and StoneX's Cody Acree reiterated Buy at $270 on Nov 4, 2026.
Medium confidenceThe stockanalysis.com forecast page lists all three dated actions with firm, analyst, rating and old/new target; Investing.com separately confirms the Bernstein SocGen cut to $155 from $165 on handset concerns. Confidence is medium because these are secondary aggregators and no post-earnings target revisions from Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan, BofA, Citi, Wells Fargo or Barclays were retrievable in the sources searched — Bernstein's $155 and Susquehanna's $185 straddle the current price, implying roughly -10% to +7% from spot.
Data center is the principal new growth catalyst but is early and supply-constrained: Qualcomm booked $650 million of data center revenue in Q4 FY2026 and targets $5 billion for FY2027, with CEO Cristiano Amon stating 'We don't have a demand issue; it's a supply issue' and that Android shipments in China have bottomed; management guides non-handset revenue to grow over 60% in FY2027 after 36% YoY growth in Q4.
Medium confidenceCNBC reports the $650M quarterly data center revenue, the $5B FY2027 target and the Amon quotes; the Benzinga earnings-call transcript carries the non-handset growth figures (36% in Q4, >60% expected in FY2027) and the $8B automotive annualized exit run-rate. Confidence is medium because the $5B FY2027 figure is a company target rather than a contracted backlog, and both sources are secondary renderings of the call.
Technical posture is neutral-to-soft: QCOM closed at $173.19 on Nov 4, 2026 — below its 50-day moving average of $178.23 but above its 200-day of $169.65 — with RSI at 47.76, a 52-week price change of -3.87%, 5-year beta of 1.65, and modest short interest of 29.81M shares (2.80% of float, 2.29 days to cover); the ~7% after-hours drop would place shares near $161, below both averages.
Medium confidencestockanalysis.com lists the $173.19 close, $178.23/$169.65 moving averages, RSI 47.76, -3.87% 52-week change, beta 1.65 and the short-interest metrics; the implied ~$161 level is derived from CNBC's reported ~7% extended-hours decline and is therefore an estimate, not a recorded print — intraday Nov 5 pricing was not confirmed in these sources. Note also that FY2026 capital returns totaled $11,671M ($7,817M of buybacks retiring 48M shares plus $3,854M of dividends) per the SEC 8-K exhibit, against a 2.13% dividend yield and 42.8% payout ratio.
On a 12-month basis QCOM is roughly flat-to-down, with a 52-week price change of -3.87%, but it sits about 38% below its 52-week high of $259.92 and about 31% above its 52-week low of $121.99.
Medium confidenceThe statistics page reports a 52-week price change of -3.87%; the quote page gives the 52-week range of $121.99–$259.92, from which the drawdown from the high and gain from the low are arithmetic. A precise 6-month return could not be verified — macrotrends and stockanalysis performance pages were inaccessible (403/404).
Momentum indicators were weak but not oversold heading into the print: RSI(14) was reported at 39.6 (secondary technical site) and 47.76 (stockanalysis), MACD at -2.511, and a short-term 'death cross' formed around Oct 30, 2026 when the 20-day SMA ($175.12) crossed below the 50-day SMA ($177.98).
Medium confidenceThe journalarta technical recap cites RSI(14) 39.6, MACD -2.511, Stochastic %K 16.1 and a 20/50-day death cross two sessions before Nov 3; stockanalysis independently lists RSI at 47.76. The RSI gap reflects different as-of dates/calculation windows, so the level is best read as 'neutral, above the 30 oversold threshold' rather than a single precise number.
Near-term chart levels cluster at roughly $160–$162 support and $185 resistance: a 20-day support reading of $162.08 and resistance of $185.41, with a separate pre-earnings note flagging $160 as the support zone being tested.
Low confidencejournalarta lists 20-day support/resistance of $162.08/$185.41 and TradingKey's pre-earnings piece headlines QCOM nearing $160 support. Both are secondary technical commentary with short lookback windows, not primary data, so confidence is low.
Sources (17)
- https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0000804328/000080432826000127/qcom092726erex991.htmfundamentalsPrimary
- https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/qcom/statistics/fundamentalsSecondary
- https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/qcom/fundamentalsSecondary
- https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/qcom/financials/ratios/fundamentalsSecondary
- https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/avgo/statistics/fundamentalsSecondary
- https://www.benzinga.com/news/26/11/62899398/qualcomm-q4-2026-earnings-call-transcriptfundamentalsSecondary
- https://www.gurufocus.com/news/9170976/qualcomm-inc-reports-q4-revenues-of-1032-billion-and-gaap-eps-of-117-exceeding-expectationsfundamentalsSecondary
- https://www.marketbeat.com/instant-alerts/earnings-qualcomm-nasdaq-qcom-posts-earnings-results-2026-11-04/fundamentalsSecondary
- https://www.tipranks.com/stocks/qcomfundamentalsSecondary
- https://www.cnbc.com/2026/11/04/qualcomm-qcom-earnings-report-q4-2026.htmlanalyst_targetsSecondary
- https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/qcom/forecast/analyst_targetsSecondary
- https://investing.com/news/analyst-ratings/bernstein-socgen-cuts-qualcomm-stock-price-target-on-handset-concerns-93CH-4991564analyst_targetsSecondary
- https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/avgo/technicalsSecondary
- https://www.marketbeat.com/stocks/NASDAQ/QCOM/technicalsSecondary
- https://www.chartmill.com/stock/quote/QCOM/analyst-ratingstechnicalsSecondary
- https://journalarta.com/en/2026/11/04/qcom-stock-gains-1-45-on-tuesday-death-cross-pressure/technicalsUnreliable
- https://www.tradingkey.com/analysis/stocks/us-stocks/262272227-qualcomm-stock-forecast-qcom-ahead-earnings-tradingkeytechnicalsUnreliable
Caveats
Time sensitivity: all pricing, multiples, moving averages, RSI and analyst tallies are as of the Nov 4, 2026 close and the after-hours session that followed. The $160.16 after-hours print and the implied ~$161 level are not a recorded regular-session close, and no confirmed Nov 5 intraday pricing was available in the sources — every valuation multiple quoted (13.64x trailing, 17.05x forward, 18.70x EV/EBITDA, 6.62x P/B, 4.29x P/S, 2.13% yield) is computed off $173.19 and would be roughly 7% lower on price if the after-hours move held [3][14][21]. Source quality: the quarter's and guidance figures come from a primary source — Qualcomm's SEC-filed 8-K earnings exhibit (https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0000804328/000080432826000127/qcom092726erex991.htm) — including segment detail, the $5.7B valuation-allowance tax benefit, cash flow, debt and capital returns [1][2][4][5][7][8][13][16]. Consensus estimates, management quotes and the StreetAccount handset estimate are secondary (CNBC, Benzinga's rendering of the earnings call). All multiples, moving averages, RSI, short interest, dividend-yield/payout and historical ratio series are from stockanalysis.com, a secondary aggregator, and change daily [6][7][14][18][21]. Support/resistance levels ($162.08/$185.41, the $160 zone) come from journalarta and TradingKey — short-lookback secondary technical commentary, flagged low confidence [24]. Internal inconsistencies to note: the 50-day SMA is reported as both $178.23 and $177.98 and the 200-day as both $169.65 and $169.42; RSI(14) is reported at 47.76 and 39.6 on different as-of dates/windows, so it is best read as 'neutral, above the 30 oversold threshold' rather than a precise level [9][14][23]. Analyst panels disagree: stockanalysis shows 37 analysts at a $197.03 average, MarketBeat 39 at $205.48, ChartMill 49 at $201.29 — all Hold-clustered but not reconcilable to one number, and TipRanks' ~$197 average is pre-print [9][12][17]. Gaps and what isn't covered: no post-earnings target revisions from Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan, BofA, Citi, Wells Fargo or Barclays were retrievable, so the analyst picture is skewed toward specialists; the Bernstein, Susquehanna and TD Cowen actions come from aggregated coverage and were not independently verified against the brokers' own notes [9][17][19]. A precise 6-month return could not be verified (performance pages returned 403/404) [22]. The ~$5B FY2027 Data Center figure is a company target, not contracted backlog, and the >60% non-handset growth and ~$8B automotive exit run rate are management statements from secondary transcript renderings [20]. Fiscal-year ratio history is distorted by a FY2025 charge and the FY2026 tax benefit flowing through both earnings and EBITDA, limiting clean five-year comparison [18]. Also not covered here: the full 10-K (only the 8-K exhibit was available), the quantified size of the Apple modem revenue loss, memory-cost magnitude beyond qualitative commentary, QTL license-renewal timing, China/Android unit specifics beyond the 'bottomed' comment, regulatory and litigation exposure, and any detail on competing Arm-based or in-house silicon programs [15][20]. Only one peer (Broadcom) was compared, and its business mix differs materially from Qualcomm's, so the multiple gap is not a like-for-like read [6]. Nothing here is a buy, sell or hold recommendation.
This report is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice. No buy / sell / hold recommendation is made or implied.