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PLTR logoPLTREquity research

Report date: 2026-06-07

$171.70-3.70 (-2.11%)Live · delayed quote, informational only

Analysis focus

Provide a balanced, comprehensive analysis: fundamentals and valuation, the Wall Street view, technical posture, and the key forward risks and catalysts.

Summary

Technical / price state: PLTR trades around $134-$136 in early June 2026 (roughly $135.53 at the June 5 close, ~$133.89 intraday June 7), down about 20% year-to-date from a late-2025 close near $183 and roughly 35% below its 52-week high of $207.52. The stock sits above its 50-day moving average (~$141 per some feeds, though the price has since slipped near or below it) but well under its 200-day moving average (~$161), a classic mixed signal: short-term stabilization inside a broader downtrend. RSI(14) readings are neutral and source-dependent, ranging from ~44.8 (Barchart) to ~59.6 (TipRanks), implying neither overbought nor oversold. Cited support clusters near $137-$148 (pivot/100-day shelf) with deeper support toward $122 (52-week low zone); resistance runs toward $176 and ultimately the $207 high. The drawdown is widely attributed to valuation normalization and profit-taking rather than business deterioration. Bull case: The underlying business is accelerating, not slowing. Q1 2026 (reported May 4, 2026) delivered record results: revenue of $1.63B, up 85% YoY (its highest-ever growth rate) and 16% sequentially; U.S. revenue grew 104% YoY to $1.28B, crossing triple digits for the first time since the direct listing. U.S. commercial revenue jumped 133% YoY to $595M and U.S. government 84% to $687M. Profitability is exceptional for a hyper-growth name: 60% adjusted operating margin, 53% GAAP net margin ($871M net income), $925M adjusted free cash flow (57% margin), and a Rule of 40 score of ~145%. Net dollar retention is 150%+, commercial customers topped 1,000 (+31% YoY) with 206 deals over $1M closed, and management raised FY2026 revenue guidance to $7.65-7.66B (~71% growth) and U.S. commercial guidance to $3.224B+ (~120%). Consensus is a Buy/Moderate Buy from ~31 analysts with an average 12-month target around $183-$193 (high $255-$260), implying meaningful upside if execution holds. Bear case / risks: Valuation is the central problem. PLTR carries an extreme price-to-sales ratio (~65-67x on common feeds, with some analyses citing 100x+) versus a software median near 2x, and a trailing P/E around 150-176x. Forward P/E estimates are wildly dispersed and contested - from ~86-92x (stockanalysis.com, GuruFocus) up to 195x+ in bearish analyses - meaning the multiple prices in years of near-flawless execution. Stock-based compensation is heavy (~$200M in Q1 2026; ~$1.65B TTM by some measures) and dilutive, with buybacks offsetting only a fraction. Insider selling is persistent: Karp has sold billions since 2024 and Thiel-linked entities have liquidated large blocks, with a recent sell-to-buy ratio near 9:1. Government revenue concentration ties results to defense/intelligence budgets and political risk, while competition from Snowflake, Databricks, Salesforce and the hyperscalers (Microsoft, Amazon, Google) threatens the commercial growth story. The stock is high-beta and volatile (a ~15% single-week drop occurred recently). This report implies no buy or sell recommendation; figures are time-sensitive and some are contested across sources.

Findings (18)

Q1 2026 revenue was $1.63B, up 85% YoY (highest-ever growth rate) and 16% sequentially.

High confidence

Multiple sources report total Q1 2026 revenue of $1.633B with 85% YoY and 16% QoQ growth, described as Palantir's highest-ever YoY growth rate.

U.S. revenue grew 104% YoY to $1.28B, the first triple-digit U.S. growth since the direct listing.

High confidence

U.S. revenue reached $1.282B, up 104% YoY and 19% sequentially, crossing triple-digit growth for the first time since Palantir's 2020 direct public offering.

U.S. commercial revenue rose 133% YoY to $595M; U.S. government revenue rose 84% YoY to $687M.

High confidence

U.S. commercial was $595M (+133% YoY, +18% QoQ) and U.S. government $687M (+84% YoY, +21% QoQ), per Q1 2026 slides and earnings coverage.

GAAP net income was $871M (53% net margin); adjusted operating margin 60%; adjusted FCF $925M (57% margin).

High confidence

Q1 2026 GAAP net income ~$871M (53% GAAP net margin), 60% adjusted operating margin, and $925M adjusted free cash flow at a 57% margin.

Adjusted EPS was $0.33; GAAP EPS reported as $0.34 (one source cites $0.36).

Medium confidence

Adjusted EPS of $0.33 is consistent across sources; GAAP EPS is reported as $0.34 by TIKR but as $0.36 in other earnings summaries, a minor discrepancy.

Rule of 40 score reached ~145% (85% growth + 60% adjusted operating margin).

High confidence

Palantir's Q1 2026 Rule of 40 hit ~145%, combining 85% revenue growth with a 60% adjusted operating margin.

Net dollar retention was 150%+; commercial customers exceeded 1,000 (+31% YoY); U.S. commercial customers 615 (+42% YoY).

High confidence

NRR 150%+, total commercial customers 1,007 (+31% YoY), and U.S. commercial customer count 615 (+42% YoY); ARR run-rate cited at $6.5B+.

Q1 2026 deal activity: 206 deals over $1M, 72 over $5M, 47 over $10M; total remaining deal value ~$11.8B, RPO ~$4.5B.

High confidence

Palantir closed 206 deals at $1M+ (72 at $5M+, 47 at $10M+); total remaining deal value ~$11.8B and RPO ~$4.5B.

FY2026 revenue guidance raised to $7.65-7.66B (~71% YoY); U.S. commercial guide raised to $3.224B+ (~120%); Q2 2026 guided ~$1.8B.

High confidence

Full-year 2026 revenue guidance was raised to $7.650-7.662B (~71% growth), U.S. commercial to at least $3.224B (~120%), with Q2 guided around $1.8B vs ~$1.68B consensus.

PLTR traded around $134-$136 in early June 2026, ~20% YTD lower and ~35% below the 52-week high of $207.52.

Medium confidence

Price was ~$135.53 at the June 5 close and ~$133.89 intraday June 7; PLTR is down about 20% YTD from a late-2025 close near $183, with a 52-week high of $207.52 and low near $119-$123.

Price-to-sales is ~65-67x (some analyses cite 100x+), far above the software median near 2x.

Medium confidence

GuruFocus cites a P/S near 65-67x as of early June 2026 versus a software-industry median around 2x; bearish pieces have referenced figures above 100x, showing dispersion.

Forward P/E estimates are highly contested, ranging from ~86-92x to 195x+ depending on source and EPS assumption.

Low confidence

stockanalysis.com shows forward P/E ~86x and GuruFocus ~92x, while some bearish analyses cite 195x+; trailing P/E is ~150-176x. The wide range reflects differing EPS and price inputs.

Analyst consensus is Buy/Moderate Buy from ~31 analysts; average 12-month target ~$183-$193, range $90 to $255-$260.

High confidence

MarketBeat shows a Moderate Buy from 31 analysts with a mean target of $192.76 (high $255, low $90); S&P-based consensus cited an average near $183.73.

PLTR trades above its 50-day MA (~$141) but below its 200-day MA (~$161); RSI(14) neutral (~44.8-59.6).

Medium confidence

Barchart shows 50-day SMA ~$140.90, 200-day ~$161.07, RSI 44.79; TipRanks cited 50-day ~$141.92, 200-day ~$161.52, RSI 59.63 - mixed bullish/bearish signals.

Support clusters near $137-$148; resistance near $176 then the $207 high; recent ~15% weekly drop on valuation/profit-taking.

Medium confidence

Pivot/100-day shelf support cited near $147-$148 with S1 ~$137.60 and resistance toward $176.72; a ~15% weekly decline was attributed to profit-taking and elevated valuation near the $208 high.

Stock-based compensation is heavy and dilutive (~$200M in Q1 2026; TTM ~$1.65B by some measures); buybacks offset little.

Medium confidence

Q1 2026 SBC was ~$201.6M; TTM SBC figures range from ~$684M (FY2025 by one filing-based measure) to ~$1.65B (TTM through Sep 2025 per Macrotrends), with buyback-to-SBC ratio cited near 0.08x.

Persistent insider selling: Karp sold billions since 2024, Thiel-linked entities liquidated large blocks; recent sell-to-buy ratio ~9:1.

Medium confidence

Reports cite a ~9.3:1 sell-to-buy ratio over three months, ~$141M in recent insider sales, Karp sales exceeding $4B since 2024, and Thiel-linked block sales; some are pre-arranged 10b5-1 plans.

Government revenue concentration and competition (Snowflake, Databricks, Salesforce, hyperscalers) are key bear-case risks.

Medium confidence

Government remains ~42% of revenue, exposing results to defense/intel budgets and policy; bearish coverage flags Snowflake, Databricks, Salesforce and Microsoft/Amazon/Google as competitive threats to commercial growth.

Sources (34)

Caveats

Time-sensitive: price, RSI, moving averages, and valuation multiples drift daily; figures reflect early June 2026 (June 5-7 reads). The current price is reported between ~$133.89 (June 7 intraday) and $135.53 (June 5 close) across feeds and is marked medium. The SEC primary press release (8-K exhibit) and the 10-Q returned HTTP 403 to the fetch tool and could not be retrieved directly; Q1 2026 fundamentals were corroborated across the Yahoo/Nasdaq-distributed press release wording and multiple secondary summaries (TIKR, Investing.com, SaaStr, Constellation), which agree closely. Contested/low-confidence items: forward P/E ranges enormously (~86x to 195x+) depending on EPS and price inputs; P/S ranges ~65x to 100x+; GAAP EPS is reported as $0.34 or $0.36; SBC TTM figures differ by methodology (~$684M filing-based vs ~$1.65B trailing). Government share of revenue (~42%) and exact insider-sale totals are approximate. 52-week low is cited variously near $118.93-$122.68. This report is informational only and implies no buy, sell, or hold recommendation.

This report is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice. No buy / sell / hold recommendation is made or implied.

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