Report date: 2026-06-07
Analysis focus
Provide a balanced, comprehensive analysis: fundamentals and valuation, the Wall Street view, technical posture, and the key forward risks and catalysts.
Summary
Findings (18)
Q1 2026 revenue was $1.63B, up 85% YoY (highest-ever growth rate) and 16% sequentially.
High confidenceMultiple sources report total Q1 2026 revenue of $1.633B with 85% YoY and 16% QoQ growth, described as Palantir's highest-ever YoY growth rate.
U.S. revenue grew 104% YoY to $1.28B, the first triple-digit U.S. growth since the direct listing.
High confidenceU.S. revenue reached $1.282B, up 104% YoY and 19% sequentially, crossing triple-digit growth for the first time since Palantir's 2020 direct public offering.
U.S. commercial revenue rose 133% YoY to $595M; U.S. government revenue rose 84% YoY to $687M.
High confidenceU.S. commercial was $595M (+133% YoY, +18% QoQ) and U.S. government $687M (+84% YoY, +21% QoQ), per Q1 2026 slides and earnings coverage.
GAAP net income was $871M (53% net margin); adjusted operating margin 60%; adjusted FCF $925M (57% margin).
High confidenceQ1 2026 GAAP net income ~$871M (53% GAAP net margin), 60% adjusted operating margin, and $925M adjusted free cash flow at a 57% margin.
Adjusted EPS was $0.33; GAAP EPS reported as $0.34 (one source cites $0.36).
Medium confidenceAdjusted EPS of $0.33 is consistent across sources; GAAP EPS is reported as $0.34 by TIKR but as $0.36 in other earnings summaries, a minor discrepancy.
Rule of 40 score reached ~145% (85% growth + 60% adjusted operating margin).
High confidencePalantir's Q1 2026 Rule of 40 hit ~145%, combining 85% revenue growth with a 60% adjusted operating margin.
Net dollar retention was 150%+; commercial customers exceeded 1,000 (+31% YoY); U.S. commercial customers 615 (+42% YoY).
High confidenceNRR 150%+, total commercial customers 1,007 (+31% YoY), and U.S. commercial customer count 615 (+42% YoY); ARR run-rate cited at $6.5B+.
Q1 2026 deal activity: 206 deals over $1M, 72 over $5M, 47 over $10M; total remaining deal value ~$11.8B, RPO ~$4.5B.
High confidencePalantir closed 206 deals at $1M+ (72 at $5M+, 47 at $10M+); total remaining deal value ~$11.8B and RPO ~$4.5B.
FY2026 revenue guidance raised to $7.65-7.66B (~71% YoY); U.S. commercial guide raised to $3.224B+ (~120%); Q2 2026 guided ~$1.8B.
High confidenceFull-year 2026 revenue guidance was raised to $7.650-7.662B (~71% growth), U.S. commercial to at least $3.224B (~120%), with Q2 guided around $1.8B vs ~$1.68B consensus.
PLTR traded around $134-$136 in early June 2026, ~20% YTD lower and ~35% below the 52-week high of $207.52.
Medium confidencePrice was ~$135.53 at the June 5 close and ~$133.89 intraday June 7; PLTR is down about 20% YTD from a late-2025 close near $183, with a 52-week high of $207.52 and low near $119-$123.
Price-to-sales is ~65-67x (some analyses cite 100x+), far above the software median near 2x.
Medium confidenceGuruFocus cites a P/S near 65-67x as of early June 2026 versus a software-industry median around 2x; bearish pieces have referenced figures above 100x, showing dispersion.
Forward P/E estimates are highly contested, ranging from ~86-92x to 195x+ depending on source and EPS assumption.
Low confidencestockanalysis.com shows forward P/E ~86x and GuruFocus ~92x, while some bearish analyses cite 195x+; trailing P/E is ~150-176x. The wide range reflects differing EPS and price inputs.
Analyst consensus is Buy/Moderate Buy from ~31 analysts; average 12-month target ~$183-$193, range $90 to $255-$260.
High confidenceMarketBeat shows a Moderate Buy from 31 analysts with a mean target of $192.76 (high $255, low $90); S&P-based consensus cited an average near $183.73.
PLTR trades above its 50-day MA (~$141) but below its 200-day MA (~$161); RSI(14) neutral (~44.8-59.6).
Medium confidenceBarchart shows 50-day SMA ~$140.90, 200-day ~$161.07, RSI 44.79; TipRanks cited 50-day ~$141.92, 200-day ~$161.52, RSI 59.63 - mixed bullish/bearish signals.
Support clusters near $137-$148; resistance near $176 then the $207 high; recent ~15% weekly drop on valuation/profit-taking.
Medium confidencePivot/100-day shelf support cited near $147-$148 with S1 ~$137.60 and resistance toward $176.72; a ~15% weekly decline was attributed to profit-taking and elevated valuation near the $208 high.
Stock-based compensation is heavy and dilutive (~$200M in Q1 2026; TTM ~$1.65B by some measures); buybacks offset little.
Medium confidenceQ1 2026 SBC was ~$201.6M; TTM SBC figures range from ~$684M (FY2025 by one filing-based measure) to ~$1.65B (TTM through Sep 2025 per Macrotrends), with buyback-to-SBC ratio cited near 0.08x.
Persistent insider selling: Karp sold billions since 2024, Thiel-linked entities liquidated large blocks; recent sell-to-buy ratio ~9:1.
Medium confidenceReports cite a ~9.3:1 sell-to-buy ratio over three months, ~$141M in recent insider sales, Karp sales exceeding $4B since 2024, and Thiel-linked block sales; some are pre-arranged 10b5-1 plans.
Government revenue concentration and competition (Snowflake, Databricks, Salesforce, hyperscalers) are key bear-case risks.
Medium confidenceGovernment remains ~42% of revenue, exposing results to defense/intel budgets and policy; bearish coverage flags Snowflake, Databricks, Salesforce and Microsoft/Amazon/Google as competitive threats to commercial growth.
Sources (34)
- https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001321655/000132165526000026/a2026q1ex991pressrelease.htmfundamentalsPrimary
- https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001321655/000132165526000028/pltr-20260331.htmfundamentalsPrimary
- https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001321655/000132165526000019/pltr-20260423.htmrisksPrimary
- https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/palantir-reports-q1-2026-u-200500041.htmlfundamentalsSecondary
- https://www.nasdaq.com/press-release/palantir-reports-q1-2026-us-revenue-growth-104-y-y-and-revenue-growth-85-y-y-raisesfundamentalsPrimary
- https://www.tikr.com/blog/palantir-q1-2026-earnings-u-s-revenue-crosses-100-growth-for-the-first-timefundamentalsSecondary
- https://www.investing.com/news/company-news/palantir-q1-2026-slides-us-revenue-tops-100-growth-rule-of-40-hits-145-93CH-4657648fundamentalsSecondary
- https://www.saastr.com/palantir-q1-2026-has-broken-the-enterprise-software-mold-again-revenue-accelerates-to-85-at-6b-arr/fundamentalsSecondary
- https://www.constellationr.com/insights/news/palantirs-us-commercial-government-deals-surge-q1fundamentalsSecondary
- https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/04/palantir-pltr-q1-earnings-report-2026.htmlfundamentalsSecondary
- https://futurumgroup.com/insights/palantir-q1-fy-2026-revenue-beats-estimates-us-demand-drives-outlook-raise/fundamentalsSecondary
- https://mlq.ai/stocks/PLTR/q1-2026-earnings/fundamentalsSecondary
- https://www.marketbeat.com/stocks/NASDAQ/PLTR/forecast/valuationSecondary
- https://public.com/stocks/pltr/forecast-price-targetvaluationSecondary
- https://www.gurufocus.com/term/ps-ratio/PLTRvaluationSecondary
- https://www.financecharts.com/stocks/PLTR/value/ps-ratiovaluationSecondary
- https://www.gurufocus.com/term/forward-pe-ratio/PLTRvaluationSecondary
- https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/PLTR/valuationSecondary
- https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/PLTR/palantir-technologies/price-salesvaluationSecondary
- https://valueinvesting.io/PLTR/metric/forward-pevaluationSecondary
- https://www.barchart.com/stocks/quotes/PLTR/technical-analysistechnicalsSecondary
- https://www.tipranks.com/stocks/pltr/technical-analysistechnicalsSecondary
- https://www.investing.com/equities/palantir-technologies-inc-technicaltechnicalsSecondary
- https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/PLTR/palantir-technologies/stock-price-historytechnicalsSecondary
- https://seekingalpha.com/article/4911461-palantir-the-bottom-may-be-in-next-stop-250-technical-analysistechnicalsSecondary
- https://www.tikr.com/blog/palantir-fell-15-this-week-heres-why-investors-are-reassessing-the-stock-in-2026risksSecondary
- https://www.ainvest.com/news/palantir-valuation-growth-sustainability-2026-high-stakes-bet-ai-2512/risksSecondary
- https://247wallst.com/investing/2026/05/14/palantir-insiders-are-selling-9-shares-for-every-1-they-buy-here-is-the-defense-stock-smart-money-is-buying-instead/risksSecondary
- https://www.financialcontent.com/article/marketminute-2026-3-10-palantir-shares-dip-as-sustained-insider-selling-shadows-dominant-ai-footprintrisksSecondary
- https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/PLTR/palantir-technologies/stock-based-compensationrisksSecondary
- https://www.financecharts.com/stocks/PLTR/cash-flow/stock-based-compensationrisksSecondary
- https://tickerleague.com/companies/PLTR/buybacksrisksSecondary
- https://www.tikr.com/blog/who-owns-palantir-top-shareholders-and-recent-insider-tradesrisksSecondary
- https://www.ibtimes.com.au/palantir-2026-stock-surge-ai-growth-market-challenges-1869719risksSecondary
Caveats
Time-sensitive: price, RSI, moving averages, and valuation multiples drift daily; figures reflect early June 2026 (June 5-7 reads). The current price is reported between ~$133.89 (June 7 intraday) and $135.53 (June 5 close) across feeds and is marked medium. The SEC primary press release (8-K exhibit) and the 10-Q returned HTTP 403 to the fetch tool and could not be retrieved directly; Q1 2026 fundamentals were corroborated across the Yahoo/Nasdaq-distributed press release wording and multiple secondary summaries (TIKR, Investing.com, SaaStr, Constellation), which agree closely. Contested/low-confidence items: forward P/E ranges enormously (~86x to 195x+) depending on EPS and price inputs; P/S ranges ~65x to 100x+; GAAP EPS is reported as $0.34 or $0.36; SBC TTM figures differ by methodology (~$684M filing-based vs ~$1.65B trailing). Government share of revenue (~42%) and exact insider-sale totals are approximate. 52-week low is cited variously near $118.93-$122.68. This report is informational only and implies no buy, sell, or hold recommendation.
This report is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice. No buy / sell / hold recommendation is made or implied.