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NVDA logoNVDAEquity research

Report date: 2026-09-01

$222.27+2.93 (+1.34%)Live · delayed quote, informational only

Analysis focus

Provide a balanced, comprehensive analysis: fundamentals and valuation, the Wall Street view, technical posture, and the key forward risks and catalysts.

Summary

Nvidia enters September 2026 with fundamentals that remain extraordinary in absolute terms: fiscal Q2 2027 revenue of $96.2 billion rose 106% year over year and beat consensus of roughly $92.2 billion, with non-GAAP EPS of $2.22 versus ~$2.09-$2.10 expected and gross margin of 75.0% [2][8]. The quality of the beat matters — GAAP EPS of $2.46 was inflated by a one-time $7.8 billion gain on equity securities that should be excluded from any assessment of underlying earnings power; the core beat rests on revenue and margin, not investment marks [11]. Data Center revenue of $89.0 billion (+117% YoY) drove the quarter, split between roughly $48.7-$49 billion of hyperscale demand and about $40 billion from AI Clouds, Industrial & Enterprise customers, and management guided fiscal Q3 to $108 billion ±2% while assuming zero China data-center compute revenue [3][9]. The balance sheet supports the growth story: $21.3 billion of quarterly free cash flow ($127.0 billion trailing twelve months), $62.5 billion cash against $38.9 billion debt, and about $26 billion returned to shareholders in the quarter via buybacks and dividends, alongside a modest $0.25 quarterly dividend yielding ~0.46% [5][6]. The bull side of the ledger centers on valuation and momentum. At $217.43 and a $5.25 trillion market cap [10], NVDA trades at roughly 27.9x trailing and 18.3x forward earnings with EV/EBITDA near 26x [1] — a substantial discount to peer AMD (forward P/E ~43-63x, EV/EBITDA near 80x) and toward the low end of NVDA's own multi-year P/E range, as earnings growth has outpaced the share price [12]. Wall Street reacted to the print by adding more than $400 billion in market value (an ~8.7% surge on August 27-28), driven partly by calendar-2027 revenue growth guidance of about 70% — nearly double what analysts had modeled [4]. Consensus stands at Strong Buy from 60 analysts (48 Strong Buy, 9 Buy, 2 Hold, 1 Strong Sell) [13], with an average target of $325.99 and median of $315, roughly 45-50% above the current price [14]; post-earnings raises came from JPMorgan ($320) [15], Goldman Sachs ($300, though notably Neutral-rated) [17], Morgan Stanley ($300, Overweight) [18], Stifel ($315) and Phillip Securities ($300) [20], with BofA most bullish at $350 as a top pick [19]. The cautionary side is equally concrete. Guidance embeds gross margin slipping from 75.0% to 74.0%, and supply commitments more than doubled from $119 billion to $279 billion — primarily memory procurement — a forward cost and inventory-risk signal the market is now pricing [9]. The Q3 outlook's assumption of zero China data-center compute revenue removes one uncertainty but also caps a former growth vector [3]. The street-wide target range of $180 to $515 — a nearly 3x spread, with the low target below the current price — signals unusually wide disagreement about AI-capex-driven earnings power rather than settled consensus [7][14], and Barclays' $275 target sits well below the average [19]. Forward P/E estimates themselves diverge across providers (18.3x vs 24.5x), so the valuation picture depends on whose earnings estimates one trusts [1]. Technically, the stock entered earnings after a 7.5% seven-session decline and remains below its May 14, 2026 all-time high of $236.54, the key overhead resistance alongside ~$231-232 [16]; it trades above both its 50-day ($208.42) and 200-day ($195.83) moving averages in an uptrend on both timeframes [22], with pre-earnings RSI near 52.3 — neutral momentum [23] — and post-earnings support identified around $207.58-$209.43 and nearer-term at ~$217, though these levels carry low confidence [24]. Six-month performance of +27.4% modestly outpaced the semiconductor industry's +25.1%, while the trailing-12-month total return was ~20.9% [21].

Findings (24)

NVDA's valuation multiples as of September 1, 2026 are approximately 27.9x trailing P/E, 18.3x forward P/E, 23.3x price-to-book, and 26.0x EV/EBITDA, though forward P/E estimates vary across providers (GuruFocus showed 24.5x as of Aug 19, 2026).

High confidence

Stockanalysis.com lists trailing P/E 27.92, forward P/E 18.30, P/B 23.28, and EV/EBITDA 25.97 as of Sep 1, 2026; MacroTrends independently showed a trailing P/E of 31.53 as of Aug 28, 2026, and GuruFocus showed forward P/E of 24.50 — the spread reflects differing earnings estimates and calculation dates.

In Q2 fiscal 2027 (reported late August 2026), Nvidia posted revenue of $96.2 billion (up 106% year-over-year and 18% sequentially) with non-GAAP diluted EPS of $2.22 and GAAP diluted EPS of $2.46, beating consensus expectations of roughly $92.2 billion in revenue and about $2.09-$2.10 in adjusted EPS.

High confidence

Nvidia's official press release confirms $96.2B revenue, $2.46 GAAP EPS, $2.22 non-GAAP EPS, and 75.0% gross margin; secondary sources confirm the beat versus consensus of ~$92.2B revenue and ~$2.09-$2.10 adjusted EPS.

Data Center revenue reached $89.0 billion in Q2 FY2027, up 117% year-over-year, split between roughly $48.7-$49 billion from hyperscale customers and about $40 billion from AI Clouds, Industrial & Enterprise customers, and Nvidia guided Q3 FY2027 revenue to $108 billion ±2% assuming zero China data-center compute revenue.

High confidence

Nvidia's press release confirms $89.0B Data Center revenue (+117% YoY) and $108B ±2% Q3 guidance at 74.0% gross margin; secondary coverage confirms the hyperscale/ACIE split and that the outlook excludes China data-center compute revenue.

NVDA shares surged roughly 8.7% on August 27-28, 2026 following the report, adding more than $400 billion in market value, driven by both the beat and guidance for calendar-2027 revenue growth of about 70% — nearly double what analysts had modeled.

High confidence

CNBC reported the greater-than-$400 billion market-cap addition after the blowout results; Motley Fool's market coverage attributed the surge specifically to guidance for ~70% growth versus analyst expectations, and a secondary technical blog quantified the single-day gain at 8.74%.

Nvidia generated $21.3 billion of free cash flow in Q2 FY2027 alone ($127.0 billion trailing-twelve-month FCF), holds $62.5 billion in cash against $38.9 billion of total debt (net cash position), and returned about $26 billion to shareholders in the quarter via $19.7 billion of buybacks and $6.0 billion of dividends.

High confidence

The company press release reports $24.1B operating cash flow, $21.3B FCF, $19.7B repurchases, and $6.0B dividends for the quarter; stockanalysis.com shows TTM FCF of $127.01B, total cash of $62.47B, and total debt of $38.86B as of Sep 1, 2026.

NVDA pays a quarterly dividend of $0.25 per share (next payable October 1, 2026), equating to roughly $1.00 annually and a dividend yield of approximately 0.46%.

High confidence

Nvidia's press release states the next quarterly cash dividend of $0.25 per share will be paid October 1, 2026; stockanalysis.com confirms $1.00 dividend per share and a 0.46% yield at the current price.

The post-earnings analyst reaction was broadly positive but not unanimous in magnitude: major-bank targets cluster between $275 (Barclays) and $350 (BofA) against a $217.40 price, while the street-wide range of $180 to $515 shows unusually wide disagreement about Nvidia's forward AI-capex-driven earnings power.

High confidence

CNBC's Aug 27, 2026 roundup documents analysts turning more bullish after the blowout quarter, and stockanalysis.com's target distribution quantifies the dispersion; a nearly 3x spread between low and high targets is a structural signal of forecast uncertainty rather than consensus.

The primary catalyst for the late-August 2026 rally was Nvidia's fiscal Q2 2027 report (August 26, 2026): revenue of $96.2 billion, up 106% year over year from $46.7 billion, and EPS of $2.22, up 111% from $1.05, with gross margin of 75.0% versus 72.7% a year earlier.

High confidence

CNBC's live earnings coverage and MarketBeat's earnings report page both carried the $96.2 billion revenue, $2.22 EPS, and margin figures; no one-time items such as tariff refunds or settlements were flagged as inflating the beat, indicating an organic revenue-driven quarter.

Management guided fiscal Q3 2027 revenue to $108 billion plus or minus 2% (roughly 89% year-over-year growth), but flagged gross margin slipping to 74% and supply commitments more than doubling from $119 billion to $279 billion, primarily for memory procurement — forward catalysts and cost risks the market is now pricing.

High confidence

CNBC's earnings coverage carried the $108 billion guidance, the 74% margin outlook, and the $119 billion-to-$279 billion jump in supply commitments tied to memory procurement.

As of September 1, 2026, NVDA trades at approximately $217.43 per share with a market capitalization of about $5.25 trillion and an enterprise value of roughly $5.23 trillion.

High confidence

Stockanalysis.com's statistics page, last updated Sep 1, 2026, lists the share price at $217.43 (3:02 PM EDT), market cap of $5.25T, and enterprise value of $5.23T.

Nvidia's Q2 FY2027 GAAP EPS of $2.46 was inflated above its $2.22 non-GAAP EPS primarily by a one-time $7.8 billion gain on equity securities (non-operating investment marks), which should be excluded when assessing the underlying earnings beat.

High confidence

The GAAP-to-non-GAAP reconciliation in Nvidia's press release shows $7.8 billion of gains from equity securities, which explains why GAAP EPS exceeds the adjusted figure; the core operating beat rests on the $96.2B revenue and 75.0% gross margin, not this gain.

Relative to its closest AI-accelerator peer, NVDA trades at a substantial discount: NVDA's forward P/E of roughly 18-24x and EV/EBITDA of about 26x compare with AMD's forward P/E of roughly 43-63x and EV/EBITDA near 80x, and NVDA's trailing P/E of roughly 28-32x sits toward the low end of its own multi-year range on MacroTrends' 2012-2026 P/E history as earnings growth has outpaced the share price.

Medium confidence

Motley Fool (Aug 12, 2026) cites AMD at 63x forward earnings versus Nvidia at 24x, while stockanalysis.com data shows AMD forward P/E of 42.61 and EV/EBITDA of 79.87 versus NVDA's 18.30 and 25.97; MacroTrends' historical series (trailing P/E 31.53 as of Aug 28, 2026) provides the multi-year context, though the exact 5-year average was not directly quoted, so confidence is medium on the historical positioning.

As of September 1, 2026, NVDA carries a Strong Buy consensus from 60 analysts, broken down as 48 Strong Buy, 9 Buy, 2 Hold, 0 Sell, and 1 Strong Sell, with the stock trading around $217.40.

High confidence

stockanalysis.com's forecast page dated Sep 1, 2026 lists the full 60-analyst rating breakdown and a current price of $217.40 (down 1.53% on the day).

The average 12-month analyst price target for NVDA is $325.99 (about 50% above the current price), the median is $315 (+44.9%), and the target range runs from a low of $180 to a high of $515.

High confidence

The stockanalysis.com forecast page reports average $325.99, median $315, low $180 (-17.2%), and high $515 (+136.9%) versus the Sep 1 price; note the wide dispersion — the low target sits below the current price while the high implies more than a double.

JPMorgan set a $320 price target on NVDA after the August 2026 earnings (roughly 47% above the current $217.40), and Citi maintained a Buy with a $315 target (about 45% upside).

Medium confidence

Defense World and TheStreet report JPMorgan's $320 target dated Aug 28, 2026; TheStreet separately covers Citi's Buy rating, with post-earnings search summaries putting Citi at $315. Aggregator sourcing and a $300-vs-$315 discrepancy in Citi coverage (pre- vs post-earnings) keep this at medium confidence.

Before earnings, NVDA had declined 7.5% over seven straight sessions to close at $213 on August 25, 2026, and the stock remains below its all-time high of $236.54 set May 14, 2026, which stands as the key overhead resistance zone alongside the ~$231-232 area.

Medium confidence

Vantage Markets documented the seven-day 7.5% skid into the August 25 close at $213; TradingView shows the May 14, 2026 all-time high at $236.54, and technical services place near-term resistance around the upper Bollinger Band at 231.20 and the three-month high at 232.28.

Following Nvidia's fiscal Q2 report on August 26, 2026 (revenue of $96.2 billion, up 106% year over year, with fiscal Q3 guidance of roughly $108 billion), Goldman Sachs raised its price target to $300 from $285 while keeping a Neutral rating — implying about 38% upside from $217.40.

Medium confidence

Investing.com reports Goldman analyst James Schneider's target raise to $300 with a Neutral rating on strong CY2027 guidance; Kiplinger's live earnings coverage corroborates the $96.2 billion Q2 revenue and ~$108 billion Q3 guide. Both are secondary aggregators, hence medium confidence on exact figures.

Morgan Stanley raised its NVDA price target to $300 from $288 with an Overweight rating after the August 2026 earnings, with analyst Joseph Moore citing calendar-2027 revenue commentary and a gross-margin reset as the incremental positives — about 38% upside versus the current price.

Medium confidence

TheStreet and Yahoo Finance both report Moore's Overweight rating and the target increase from $288 to $300, attributing the raise to CY27 revenue outlook and margin commentary.

Bank of America named Nvidia a top pick with a $350 price target — the most bullish among the major banks surveyed and roughly 61% above the September 1 price — while Barclays' Raimo Lenschow maintained a Buy with a lower-than-consensus $275 target (about 26% upside).

Medium confidence

TheStreet reports BofA's top-pick designation and $350 target; stockanalysis.com's rating-change log dated Sep 1, 2026 shows Barclays maintaining a $275 target with a Buy rating.

Other notable actions in the 90 days before September 1, 2026 include Stifel Nicolaus raising its target from $282 to $315 (Aug 30), Phillip Securities raising from $285 to $300 (Sep 1), and UBS lifting its target to $205 ahead of the Q2 print — a pre-earnings target that now sits below the current price.

Medium confidence

stockanalysis.com's recent-changes table lists the Stifel and Phillip Securities moves with dates and prior targets; TipRanks reported UBS's pre-earnings raise to $205, illustrating how quickly the earnings report reset the target distribution upward.

NVDA shares rallied approximately 27.4% over the six months ending late August 2026, outperforming the Zacks Semiconductor – General industry's 25.1% rise, while the 12-month total return was approximately 20.9%.

Medium confidence

Nasdaq/Zacks reported the 27.4% six-month gain versus the industry's 25.1%; FinanceCharts showed a trailing-12-month total return of 20.91% and roughly 16.8% year-to-date.

Just before its August 26, 2026 earnings, NVDA traded at $217.55, above both its 50-day simple moving average of $208.42 and its 200-day simple moving average of $195.83, keeping it in a technical uptrend on both timeframes.

Medium confidence

Barchart's technical analysis page listed the 50-day SMA at 208.42 and 200-day SMA at 195.83 against a $217.55 price, both flagged as bullish moving-average signals; the post-earnings price near $228 sits even further above both averages.

NVDA's RSI(14) reading was approximately 52.3 heading into the earnings report, a neutral level that implied the stock was neither overbought nor oversold before the post-earnings surge.

Medium confidence

Financhill reported RSI at 52.34; although that source's own label called it 'overbought,' a low-50s RSI is by standard convention neutral (overbought is typically above 70), so the number itself indicates neutral momentum.

Post-earnings technical support is identified in the $207.58-$209.43 zone (a confluence of trend lines and moving averages across timeframes), with nearer-term support around $217 at the 20-day moving average, versus a post-earnings price near $228.

Low confidence

Investtech's analysis identified the 207.58-209.43 support confluence, and other technical services placed first support at the SMA20 near 217.21 with the price at approximately 227.98; confidence is low because support/resistance figures vary across charting services and shift daily.

Sources (36)

Caveats

Time-sensitivity is high: prices, multiples, and analyst targets are snapshots as of September 1, 2026, taken days after a major earnings catalyst, and the target distribution was actively resetting (UBS's pre-earnings $205 target already sits below the market price [20]). Valuation multiples conflict across providers — trailing P/E ranges from 27.9x (stockanalysis.com) to 31.5x (MacroTrends) and forward P/E from 18.3x to 24.5x (GuruFocus) depending on estimate sets and calculation dates [1] — and the peer comparison to AMD and the claim that NVDA sits low in its own historical range carry only medium confidence because the exact 5-year average multiple was not directly sourced [12]. Several analyst-action details rely on secondary aggregators (Defense World, TheStreet, Investing.com, TipRanks) rather than primary bank research, with a known $300-vs-$315 discrepancy in Citi coverage [15][17]. Technical support/resistance levels are low-confidence by nature — they vary across charting services and shift daily [24] — and one source mislabeled a neutral RSI as overbought [23]. Gaps not covered by the findings: no segment detail beyond Data Center (Gaming, Automotive, Professional Visualization), no competitive analysis beyond AMD multiples (no custom-silicon/ASIC or hyperscaler in-house chip discussion), no quantification of customer concentration among hyperscalers, no regulatory or export-control specifics beyond the zero-China guidance assumption, and no short-interest, options-positioning, or insider-activity data. The $279 billion supply commitment is flagged but its margin and inventory-risk implications are not independently analyzed. Per the ground rules, this report presents balanced evidence only and makes no buy, sell, or hold recommendation.

This report is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice. No buy / sell / hold recommendation is made or implied.

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