Report date: 2026-06-07
Analysis focus
Provide a balanced, comprehensive analysis: fundamentals and valuation, the Wall Street view, technical posture, and the key forward risks and catalysts.
Summary
Findings (18)
NFLX traded around $81-82 in early June 2026 (Jun 5 close $82.18; Jun 7 intraday range $81.04-$82.75), near the low end of a 52-week range of $75.01-$134.12.
High confidenceMultiple quote sources independently place the stock at roughly $82 in early June 2026, with a 52-week range bottoming near $75.
A 10-for-1 forward stock split took effect at market open on November 17, 2025, making all current quotes split-adjusted.
High confidenceNetflix announced the split on Oct 30, 2025 (record date Nov 10), with split-adjusted trading beginning Nov 17, 2025; this explains the ~$82 price versus historical ~$1000+ levels.
Q1 2026 revenue was ~$12.25B, up ~16% YoY (+~14% FX-neutral).
High confidenceEarnings coverage consistently reports ~$12.24-12.25B Q1 2026 revenue with ~16% YoY growth, slightly above the ~$12.18B forecast.
Q1 2026 diluted EPS was $1.23 (post-split), up ~86% YoY, with operating margin of 32.3%.
High confidenceReported diluted EPS of $1.23 versus $0.66 in Q1'25, with operating margin of 32.3% up from 31.7% a year earlier.
Whether Q1 2026 EPS was a beat or a miss is contested: some outlets frame $1.23 as a beat of low estimates, others as a miss versus ~$1.35 consensus.
Medium confidenceOne source headlines an EPS beat while another states $1.23 missed a $1.345 consensus, the second miss in three quarters; the discrepancy likely reflects different estimate baselines.
Full-year 2026 guidance is ~$50.7-$51.7B revenue (12-14% growth) at ~31.5% operating margin; Q2 2026 guided to ~$12.57B (~13% growth) and ~32.6% margin.
High confidenceQ1 2026 shareholder letter / 8-K guidance figures corroborated by earnings coverage.
Netflix raised full-year 2026 free cash flow guidance to ~$12.5B (from ~$11B), aided by a one-time $2.8B Paramount breakup fee.
High confidenceFCF guidance was raised to ~$12.5B, with the $2.8B termination fee from Paramount (after Netflix dropped the Warner Bros. Discovery deal) cited as a key contributor.
Paid memberships exceeded 325M in Q1 2026, with ~8M net additions in the quarter.
High confidenceMultiple sources report 325M+ paid members (EMEA ~101M, UCAN ~90M, APAC ~58M, LATAM ~53M) with 8M+ net adds beating internal expectations.
Netflix's ad-supported tier surpassed 250 million monthly active users, with 4,000+ advertisers (up ~70% YoY).
High confidenceReported up from 70M (2024) and 94M (2025); ad tier drove >60% of signups in available countries and is expanding to 15 more.
Advertising revenue is expected to roughly double to ~$3B in 2026, with a long-term target of ~$9B by 2030.
High confidenceManagement reiterated a doubling of ad revenue to ~$3B in 2026 and a ~$9B ad-sales goal by 2030; programmatic is approaching >50% of non-live ad business.
Netflix repurchased ~$1.3B of stock in Q1 2026 and authorized an additional $25B buyback in April 2026.
High confidence~13.5M shares bought for ~$1.3B in Q1; the board authorized $25B additional repurchases on April 22, 2026, on top of the prior December 2024 program.
Consensus rating is Buy/Moderate Buy with an average 12-month target near $114-115 (~39% implied upside), range ~$80-95 (low) to $151 (high), from ~50 analysts.
High confidenceStockAnalysis and MarketBeat both cite an average target near $114.56-$114.82 with mostly Buy ratings and no/very few Sell ratings.
Valuation is moderate-to-rich and contested: trailing P/E is ~26-30x per most sources (one outlier ~46x); forward P/E ~23-25x.
Medium confidenceStockAnalysis shows trailing ~26.5x and forward ~24.7x; a Yahoo snippet shows ~46x, likely stale or on a different EPS basis; figure should be treated cautiously.
Some DCF/fair-value estimates place intrinsic value at or below the current price (~$79-82), implying the stock is near fair value rather than deeply cheap.
Medium confidenceDCF figures around $79.7-$81.63 versus a price near $82 suggest limited margin of safety on conservative assumptions; other models (e.g., Simply Wall St ~$113) are more bullish.
Technicals are weak: price below the 200-day MA (~$100-106) but near/above the 50-day MA (~$92); 200-day return ~-32%, YTD ~-5% to -12%.
Medium confidenceBarchart shows -32.3% over 200 days and -12.4% YTD; MA levels and the sub-200-day positioning are corroborated across technical sources, though exact MA values drift by timestamp.
RSI(14) is in oversold-to-neutral territory but varies by source/timestamp (~30.5 Barchart, ~42 AltIndex, ~48.6 Investing.com); support ~$75-76, resistance ~$124-134.
Low confidenceRSI readings span ~30 to ~49 across providers depending on snapshot time; support near recent lows and resistance near prior highs are approximate.
Key risk overhangs include co-founder Reed Hastings stepping down from the board in June 2026, a ~$700M Brazilian tax dispute, and high beta (~1.5).
Medium confidenceCoverage cites Hastings' June 2026 board exit, a ~$700M Brazilian tax overhang, competition from Alphabet/Amazon/Apple/Disney, and a beta of ~1.55 amplifying macro swings.
Bear case emphasizes heavy content spend (~$18B/yr range), maturing-market saturation, competition from YouTube and free/short-form video, and unproven ad-scaling economics.
Medium confidenceSkeptics flag content-cost intensity limiting flexibility, slowing growth in mature markets, price sensitivity in emerging markets, and risk that scaling ads degrades the viewing experience.
Sources (35)
- https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1065280/000106528026000137/ex991_q126.htmfundamentalsPrimary
- https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1065280/000106528026000138/nflx-20260331.htmfundamentalsPrimary
- https://ir.netflix.net/investor-news-and-events/financial-releases/press-release-details/2025/Netflix-Announces-Ten-For-One-Stock-Split/default.aspxfundamentalsPrimary
- https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/netflix-announces-ten-for-one-stock-split-302600167.htmlfundamentalsPrimary
- https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001065280/000106528025000407/ex991_q425stocksplit.htmfundamentalsPrimary
- https://www.investing.com/news/transcripts/earnings-call-transcript-netflix-beats-q1-2026-eps-estimates-stock-dips-93CH-4619468fundamentalsSecondary
- https://247wallst.com/companies/nflx/earnings/2026/Q1fundamentalsSecondary
- https://www.spglobal.com/market-intelligence/en/news-insights/research/2026/04/netflix-earnings-preview-q1-2026fundamentalsSecondary
- https://tech-insider.org/netflix-q1-2026-earnings-revenue-subscribers-wbd-termination-fee/fundamentalsSecondary
- https://deadline.com/2026/05/netflix-expands-ad-tier-countries-monthly-active-users-1236901705/fundamentalsSecondary
- https://www.thewrap.com/media-platforms/streaming/netflix-ad-tier-monthly-active-viewers-update-upfronts-2026/fundamentalsSecondary
- https://www.engadget.com/2172449/netflixs-ad-tier-now-has-a-whopping-250-million-monthly-users/fundamentalsSecondary
- https://dataconomy.com/2026/05/14/netflix-ad-tier-250-million-monthly-users/fundamentalsSecondary
- https://www.tekedia.com/netflix-announces-major-25b-stock-buyback-program/fundamentalsSecondary
- https://thenextweb.com/news/netflix-25-billion-share-buybackfundamentalsSecondary
- https://businesstats.com/netflix-monthly-streaming-revenue-per-customer/fundamentalsSecondary
- https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/nflx/forecast/valuationSecondary
- https://www.marketbeat.com/stocks/NASDAQ/NFLX/forecast/valuationSecondary
- https://www.tipranks.com/stocks/nflx/forecastvaluationSecondary
- https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NFLX/valuationSecondary
- https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NFLX/key-statistics/valuationSecondary
- https://intellectia.ai/blog/netflix-nflx-valuation-analysis-2026valuationUnreliable
- https://www.chartmill.com/stock/quote/NFLX/analyst-ratingsvaluationSecondary
- https://www.barchart.com/stocks/quotes/NFLX/technical-analysistechnicalsSecondary
- https://altindex.com/ticker/nflx/technical-analysistechnicalsSecondary
- https://www.investing.com/equities/netflix,-inc.-technicaltechnicalsSecondary
- https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/NFLX/netflix/stock-price-historytechnicalsSecondary
- https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/NASDAQ-NFLX/technicals/technicalsSecondary
- https://247wallst.com/investing/2026/05/28/where-will-netflix-stock-be-next-year/technicalsSecondary
- https://www.ainvest.com/news/netflix-bear-case-strengthened-structural-pressures-disappointing-earnings-outlook-2601/risksUnreliable
- https://www.simplywall.st/stocks/us/media/nasdaq-nflx/netflixrisksSecondary
- https://www.simplywall.st/stocks/us/media/nasdaq-nflx/netflix/news/why-netflix-nflx-is-down-50-after-massive-buyback-expansionrisksSecondary
- https://www.engadget.com/entertainment/paramount-agrees-to-buy-warner-bros-discovery-pays-netflix-28-billion-for-breakup-215936514.htmlrisksSecondary
- https://variety.com/2026/tv/news/netflix-warner-bros-deal-2-8-billion-in-our-pocket-cfo-says-1236679712/risksSecondary
- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proposed_acquisition_of_Warner_Bros._Discovery_by_Paramount_SkydancerisksSecondary
Caveats
Time-sensitive: prices, RSI, moving averages, and short-term returns reflect snapshots from June 5-7, 2026 and change intraday; the stock is near 52-week lows and volatile (beta ~1.5). All quotes are split-adjusted (10-for-1 split effective Nov 17, 2025); pre-split figures from older sources are not comparable. SEC primary filings (8-K/10-Q) returned HTTP 403 to automated fetching and were corroborated via secondary earnings coverage rather than read directly. Contested/drifting figures: trailing P/E ranges ~26-30x across sources with one ~46x outlier (likely stale or different EPS basis); whether Q1 2026 EPS of $1.23 was a beat or a miss differs by outlet depending on the estimate baseline; RSI(14) varies ~30-49 by provider/timestamp; buyback authorization is reported as a $25B incremental approval (one source frames cumulative authorization differently); one source's '~$9.4B Q1 revenue' and a '5x forward earnings' claim appear to be errors and were rejected in favor of the well-corroborated $12.25B revenue and ~23-27x P/E figures. AInvest and Intellectia are lower-quality/opinion sources used only for bear-case framing and flagged unreliable. This report is informational only and implies no buy or sell recommendation.
This report is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice. No buy / sell / hold recommendation is made or implied.