Report date: 2026-11-04
Analysis focus
Provide a balanced, comprehensive analysis: fundamentals and valuation, the Wall Street view, technical posture, and the key forward risks and catalysts.
Summary
Findings (24)
MU closed at $855.10 on November 3, 2026 (+2.58%), after falling 5.78% to $833.59 on November 2; the stock is roughly 48% above its May 4, 2026 close of $576.45 (6-month) and up 272.9% over the 12 months to November 2, versus 11.5% for the S&P 500.
High confidenceStockanalysis shows the Nov 3 close of $855.10 (+$21.51); Yahoo history shows the May 4, 2026 close of $576.45, implying a ~48% 6-month gain; Trefis gives the 272.9% 12-month return and S&P comparison; FX Leaders confirms the Nov 2 close of $833.59 (-5.78%).
At $833.59 (Nov 2 close) MU traded about 15% below its 50-day moving average (~$978.68) but roughly 12% above its 200-day moving average (~$744.52), and had just broken below the October 22 swing low of $849.25 after a 15.2% three-day slide from the October 28 close of $983.23.
High confidenceFX Leaders lists the 50-day MA at $978.68 and 200-day MA at $744.52; CoinCentral independently puts them at $978.71 and $746.83; TradingKey documents the $983.23 Oct 28 close, the 15.2% drawdown, the break of the $849.25 Oct 22 low, and the breach of the 144-day MA; Stockanalysis history confirms the Oct 28 close.
The November 2 drop of 5.78% was triggered by Kioxia guiding December-quarter operating profit to ¥2 trillion (~$12.7B), barely above the ¥1.99 trillion September quarter and below estimates, which reignited peak-memory-pricing fears and also hit Western Digital (-5%) and SanDisk (-3%).
High confidenceBloomberg reports Kioxia's ¥2 trillion December-quarter outlook versus ¥1.99 trillion in September; 24/7 Wall St. and FX Leaders tie Micron's decline and the Western Digital/SanDisk moves directly to that guidance; Japan Times reports Kioxia warning that flash prices are stalling.
Micron's current multiples are a trailing P/E of roughly 11.5-11.9x, a forward P/E of roughly 4.8-5.1x, price-to-book of roughly 7.0-7.2x and EV/EBITDA of roughly 8.3-8.9x, versus Sandisk (SNDK) at 9.1x trailing P/E, 4.6x forward P/E, 9.0x P/B and 7.2x EV/EBITDA.
High confidenceStockanalysis.com lists MU at 11.50x trailing P/E, 4.84x forward, 6.99x P/B and 8.26x EV/EBITDA; Yahoo lists 11.90x, 5.09x, 7.22x and 8.90x respectively. Stockanalysis.com lists Sandisk at 9.06x trailing P/E, 4.60x forward, 8.95x P/B and 7.21x EV/EBITDA, so the NAND peer trades at a modest discount on earnings and EBITDA multiples but a premium on book value.
For fiscal Q4 2026 (quarter ended September 3, 2026), Micron reported revenue of $54.23B (up 31% sequentially and 379% year-over-year), non-GAAP EPS of $33.42 versus consensus of roughly $31.6-31.8, and a non-GAAP gross margin of 87.0%, with no material one-time items boosting the quarter's beat.
High confidenceThe 8-K press release reports Q4 revenue of $54.229B, GAAP net income of $37.701B ($32.87 diluted EPS) and non-GAAP net income of $38.398B ($33.42), with GAAP gross margin 86.8%; the GAAP/non-GAAP gap is only $0.55 per share, driven by stock-based compensation. CNBC cites consensus of $33.42 vs $31.61 EPS and $54.23B vs $51.07B revenue. Full-year non-recurring items disclosed were a $500M patent license charge and $511M of debt prepayment losses, neither of which inflated the beat.
Micron guided fiscal Q1 2027 to revenue of $61.5B plus or minus $1.5B, non-GAAP gross margin of about 86.25% and non-GAAP EPS of $38.15 plus or minus $1.00, above the roughly $57B revenue and $35.40 EPS consensus at the time, citing tight HBM supply and a custom HBM collaboration with Nvidia.
High confidenceThe 8-K press release lists FQ1 2027 guidance of $61.5B ± $1.5B revenue, ~86.25% non-GAAP gross margin and $38.15 ± $1.00 non-GAAP EPS. CNBC reports consensus was $57B revenue and $35.40 EPS, and quotes CEO Sanjay Mehrotra on HBM roadmap, the Nvidia custom HBM implementation, and a $250B investment in two new HBM-focused manufacturing campuses, with Boise coming online next year.
Major-bank targets versus the $855.10 price imply upside of roughly 40% to 134%: Morgan Stanley $1,200 Overweight (+40%, Oct 1), Goldman Sachs $1,250 Neutral (+46%, Oct 1), Citi $1,300 Buy (+52%, raised from $1,150 Sep 23), Wells Fargo $1,400 Overweight (+64%, cut from $1,525 Sep 23), JPMorgan $1,540 Overweight (+80%, raised from $550 Jun 25), Bank of America $1,550 Buy (+81%, reiterated Oct 26), UBS $1,625 Buy (+90%, Sep 23), and Barclays $2,000 Overweight (+134%, Jun 25).
High confidenceMarketBeat's analyst-action table lists each firm's date, rating, and old/new target; stockanalysis.com confirms BofA's Vivek Arya $1,550 Buy on Oct 26 and Citi's Atif Malik $1,300 on Oct 29. Upside percentages are computed against the Nov 3 close of $855.10.
In the last 90 days the notable actions were target raises rather than rating changes: Mizuho to $1,400 from $1,300 (Outperform, Oct 1), DA Davidson to $3,000 from $2,100 (Buy, Oct 7), UBS to $1,625 from $535 (Sep 23), Citi to $1,300 from $1,150 (Sep 23), while Wells Fargo trimmed to $1,400 from $1,525 (Sep 23) and Goldman stayed Neutral despite lifting its target.
High confidenceMarketBeat's action log and its Nov 2 alert both record the Mizuho, DA Davidson, UBS, and Citi raises and the Wells Fargo cut. Yahoo Finance reports Goldman's James Schneider kept a Neutral rating, arguing the rally 'may already reflect much of the good news' and that he wants proof supply discipline holds through 2028.
Micron's fiscal Q4 2026 (reported Sep 30) delivered revenue of $54.23 billion, up 379% year-over-year, with non-GAAP gross margin of 87.0% and non-GAAP EPS of $33.42 versus a $31.77 consensus; full-year FY2026 revenue was $133.19 billion with $62.31 billion of adjusted free cash flow.
High confidenceThe company's 8-K press release states Q4 revenue of $54.23B (vs. $11.32B a year ago), 87.0% non-GAAP gross margin, $33.42 non-GAAP EPS, FY revenue of $133.19B, capex of $27.37B, and adjusted FCF of $62.31B. MarketBeat records the $31.77 consensus EPS estimate.
Despite the 12-month gain, MU fell 22.4% over the month to November 2, 2026 (S&P 500 -2.3%) and sits about 32-34% below its June 2026 all-time high ($1,213.18 close on June 25; $1,255 intraday).
High confidenceTrefis reports the 1-month drop of 22.4% and 52-week high close of $1,213.18 on June 25, 2026; FX Leaders and Stockanalysis cite the $1,255 52-week intraday high, with FX Leaders noting the stock ~34% below that peak at the Nov 2 close.
RSI(14) stood at 37.4 as of the November 2 close, below the 50 midline but above the 30 oversold threshold, i.e. weak-neutral rather than technically oversold, with MACD below its signal line and a negative histogram.
High confidenceBoth FX Leaders and TradingKey report RSI at 37.4 and note it is not yet below 30; TradingKey and CoinCentral describe the MACD as negative with a negative histogram indicating fading buying pressure.
The broader October-November pullback (~17-22%) reflects concerns about AI capex sustainability, CXMT's DRAM share rising from 4% to 10%, and potential 2027-2029 oversupply, rather than company-specific results: Micron's September 30 fiscal Q4 print showed revenue of $54.23B (+379% y/y), non-GAAP EPS of $33.42 vs. $31.77 consensus, 87.0% non-GAAP gross margin, and fiscal Q1 2027 guidance of $61.5B ± $1.5B revenue and $38.15 ± $1.00 non-GAAP EPS.
High confidenceThe 8-K press release gives revenue, EPS, gross margin and guidance; MarketBeat supplies the $31.77 consensus; CoinCentral attributes the drawdown to AI-spend, CXMT share-gain and oversupply worries. The non-GAAP beat excludes a $500M patent-license charge and $9M debt-prepayment loss; no tariff refunds, asset sales, insurance or settlement gains were disclosed, so the beat appears largely operational.
As of the November 3, 2026 close, Micron (MU) traded at $855.10 with a market cap of about $967B and an enterprise value of about $899B, reflecting roughly $68B of net cash.
High confidenceStockanalysis.com shows a $855.10 close on Nov 3, 2026, market cap $967.48B, EV $899.21B, total debt $5.18B and net cash $68.27B; Yahoo Finance shows a similar market cap ($943B) with EV/EBITDA 8.90 and trailing P/E 11.90.
Micron generated $33.2B of adjusted free cash flow in fiscal Q4 2026 and $62.3B for fiscal 2026 (operating cash flow $89.7B less capex $27.4B), ending the year with $73.5B of cash and investments against only $5.2B of total debt.
High confidenceThe 8-K press release reports Q4 operating cash flow of $43.973B, capex of $10.774B and adjusted FCF of $33.199B; full-year operating cash flow $89.675B, capex $27.367B, adjusted FCF $62.308B; cash and investments $73.48B; total debt $5.179B. Stockanalysis.com shows TTM FCF of $58.96B and total debt of $5.18B, consistent with the filing.
Micron pays a quarterly dividend of $0.15 per share ($0.60 annualized) that was not raised in the fiscal Q4 2026 release, giving a yield of about 0.07% and a payout ratio under 1%, and the company repurchased $650M of stock in fiscal 2026.
High confidenceThe 8-K press release declares a $0.15 per share dividend with no increase mentioned and reports $650M of FY2026 repurchases; stockanalysis.com shows $0.60 dividend per share, 0.07% yield and 0.76% payout ratio.
Wall Street consensus from 49 analysts is a 'Strong Buy' (36 Strong Buy, 9 Buy, 4 Hold, 0 Sell) with an average 12-month target of about $1,562 (targets range $361 to $3,000), while technically the stock at $855 sits below its 50-day moving average of about $975, above its 200-day average of about $752, roughly 32% below its 52-week high of $1,255, with RSI near 40 and a 5-year beta of 2.4.
Medium confidenceStockanalysis.com's forecast page shows 49 analysts, the rating breakdown, a $1,562 average target and the $361-$3,000 range; its statistics page shows the 50-day MA $974.94, 200-day MA $751.78, RSI 40.35 and beta 2.40; Yahoo shows the 52-week range of $192.59-$1,255.00. Barchart reports UBS raised its target to $1,625 from $535 and Morgan Stanley holds Overweight with a $1,050 target. Consensus targets are a secondary-source aggregate and reflect opinions, not forecasts of outcomes.
As of the November 3, 2026 close at $855.10, 49 analysts tracked by stockanalysis.com rate Micron a consensus 'Strong Buy' (36 Strong Buy, 9 Buy, 4 Hold, 0 Sell), with an average 12-month target of $1,562, a median of $1,550, and a range of $361 to $3,000.
High confidencestockanalysis.com's forecast page lists the 49-analyst breakdown, $1,562 average (+82.7%), $1,550 median, and $361/$3,000 low/high. MarketBeat's separate 46-analyst tally shows a lower $1,407.88 consensus (1 Strong Buy, 41 Buy, 4 Hold) with a $300 to $3,000 range, so the headline average varies by aggregator methodology.
Guidance for fiscal Q1 2027 calls for revenue of $61.5 billion plus or minus $1.5 billion, non-GAAP gross margin of about 86.25%, and GAAP EPS of $37.84 plus or minus $1.00, with management stating it has contracted the vast majority of calendar 2027 HBM bit supply at significant year-over-year price increases.
High confidenceThe 8-K outlook table gives the $61.5B revenue, ~86.25% non-GAAP gross margin, and $37.84 EPS midpoints; the Investing.com call transcript carries the HBM supply-agreement and pricing commentary.
At $855.10 Micron trades at a trailing P/E of about 11.5 and a forward P/E of about 4.8 on $74.33 trailing EPS and a $967 billion market cap, well below the 23x non-GAAP multiple Goldman flagged in June as 30% above the stock's 5-year average when shares were at $1,048.
Medium confidencestockanalysis.com shows trailing P/E 11.50, forward P/E 4.84, EPS (ttm) $74.33, and market cap $967.48B; MarketBeat shows P/E 11.23 and beta 2.36. Goldman's 23x and 5-year-average comparison were made before the Q4 earnings reset, so the low current multiple reflects both the earnings surge and the roughly 32% pullback from the 52-week high of $1,255. The bear case is that peak-cycle earnings make the multiple look artificially cheap.
Technicians cluster support at $830 and $800 (the latter the left-shoulder low of a possible head-and-shoulders top), with the July 29 low near $738 as the next level and the 200-day MA (~$745) just below; resistance is cited at $850, $900, $1,000 and the former support zone of $1,042.50.
Medium confidenceTradingKey and FX Leaders both name $830/$800 support and a $737.88 downside target with $850/$900 resistance; CoinCentral (written before the Nov 2 drop) cited $902.50 support and $1,042.50 resistance, which now function as overhead levels. Levels are analyst-drawn and therefore medium confidence.
Near-term technical catalysts include the November 6 Taiwan union talks, the December 9 start of the capital-return program and the December 16 fiscal Q1 report; the trailing P/E has compressed from 14.2x at September 30 to roughly 11.1-11.5x by November 2-3, against an S&P 500 multiple of 22.8x, with a forward P/E near 4.8x.
Medium confidenceFX Leaders lists the Nov 6, Dec 9 and Dec 16 dates; Trefis gives the 14.2x and 11.1x trailing P/E and the 22.8x S&P figure; Stockanalysis shows an 11.50x trailing and 4.84x forward P/E and confirms the December 16 earnings date. Forward multiples depend on cyclical-peak estimates, hence medium confidence.
Technically, the stock sits below its 50-day moving average of $978.68 but above its 200-day of $744.52, about 32% off the $1,255 52-week high, after a 5.8% drop to $833.59 on November 2 attributed to Kioxia's cautious outlook, memory pricing concerns, and profit-taking, followed by a 2.6% rebound to $855.10 on November 3; near-term catalysts include the December 16 earnings report and expected larger buybacks after CHIPS Act repurchase restrictions expire December 9.
Medium confidenceMarketBeat's Nov 2 alert gives the $833.59 close, prior close of $884.74, the 50-day and 200-day averages, and the Kioxia/pricing explanation; stockanalysis.com gives the $855.10 Nov 3 close, the $192.59 to $1,255 52-week range, the Dec 16 earnings date, and the Dec 9 buyback-restriction expiry headline.
Micron's trailing P/E of about 11.9x sits at the bottom of its range over the past five quarters, down from 21.7x at Aug 31, 2026, 45.8x at May 31, 2026, 39.2x at Feb 28, 2026 and 31.2x at Nov 30, 2025, while EV/EBITDA has compressed from 29.9x in May 2026 to about 8.9x now.
Medium confidenceYahoo Finance's quarterly valuation history table lists trailing P/E of 21.44x (Aug 2025), 31.16x (Nov 2025), 39.16x (Feb 2026), 45.80x (May 2026) and 21.67x (Aug 2026) against a current 11.90x; the compression reflects earnings growing faster than the share price. A full 5-year history was not available in the fetched sources, so the comparison is limited to the trailing five quarters shown.
The beat was not inflated by one-time gains; the only notable non-recurring items in FY2026 were charges, namely $500 million of patent license costs and $511 million of debt prepayment losses, which are excluded from non-GAAP figures and explain most of the gap between GAAP EPS of $74.33 and non-GAAP EPS of $75.52.
Medium confidenceThe 8-K non-GAAP reconciliation lists the patent license charges and debt prepayment losses alongside stock-based compensation; no tariff refunds, asset sales, insurance proceeds, or settlement gains are reported as boosting results.
Sources (26)
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Caveats
Prices, moving averages and multiples are as of the November 2-3, 2026 closes and will move quickly given the stock's beta of about 2.4 and the ongoing memory-sector selloff. Valuation and technical data come largely from secondary aggregators (stockanalysis.com, Yahoo Finance, MarketBeat, Trefis, FX Leaders, TradingKey, CoinCentral) and differ slightly between sources, for example trailing P/E of 11.5x versus 11.9x and market cap of $967B versus $943B; the earnings, guidance, cash flow and balance sheet figures come from the primary 8-K press release. A full five-year valuation history was not available, so the historical multiple comparison is limited to the trailing five quarters plus Goldman's June reference to the five-year average. The 8-K lists GAAP Q1 2027 EPS guidance of $37.84 while non-GAAP guidance is $38.15; the debt prepayment loss is cited as $511M for the full year in one finding and $9M in another, likely reflecting quarter versus full-year figures. Analyst consensus targets vary by aggregator methodology (49 analysts at $1,562 versus 46 at $1,408) and represent opinions, not forecasts of outcomes; Morgan Stanley's target appears as both $1,200 and $1,050 across sources. Support and resistance levels are analyst-drawn and medium confidence. Not covered here: detailed HBM market share data, DRAM and NAND contract pricing trends, the full fiscal Q4 earnings call, competitor results from Samsung and SK Hynix, the substance of the Taiwan union talks, and any events after November 3, 2026. This report presents evidence only and is not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold.
This report is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice. No buy / sell / hold recommendation is made or implied.