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LLY logoLLYEquity research

Report date: 2026-06-07

$1383.19-34.80 (-2.45%)Live · delayed quote, informational only

Analysis focus

Provide a balanced, comprehensive analysis: fundamentals and valuation, the Wall Street view, technical posture, and the key forward risks and catalysts.

Summary

Eli Lilly traded around $1,123-1,133 in early June 2026, after closing at a record $1,131.42 on June 5 and touching a fresh all-time intraday high of $1,166.29 on June 7. The stock sits near the top of a 52-week range of roughly $624-$1,166 and is up about 42-48% over the trailing twelve months, though year-to-date it is modestly negative (~-3%) after a flat-to-choppy first half. Price is well above its 50-day moving average (~$973) and 200-day MA (~$948), a bullish alignment, with market cap back above $1 trillion (~$1.01-1.07T). Technicals are mixed and source-dependent: 14-day RSI prints ranged from the mid-30s to low-50s in early June, i.e. broadly neutral rather than overbought. Resistance sits at the new high near $1,166; support clusters at the 50-day MA (~$970-975) then the 200-day (~$945-950). The dominant recent catalyst was FDA approval of Foundayo (orforglipron), Lilly's once-daily oral GLP-1 pill for weight management.\n\nThe bull case rests on a dominant GLP-1 franchise and accelerating fundamentals. Q1 2026 (reported April 30) revenue was $19.8B, up 56% YoY, with non-GAAP EPS of $8.55 (up ~156%) and GAAP EPS of $8.26, beating consensus near $6.85. Mounjaro global sales reached ~$8.7B (up 125%) and Zepbound U.S. sales ~$4.1B (up ~79%); combined, the two tirzepatide brands added ~$6.7B of YoY growth and are now ~65% of revenue. Gross margin stayed very high at ~82%. Management raised FY2026 guidance to $82-85B revenue and $35.50-37.00 non-GAAP EPS, with performance margin at 47.0-48.5%. The oral story is the swing factor: orforglipron beat oral semaglutide head-to-head in type 2 diabetes (ACHIEVE trials) and offers an oral path to scale injectables cannot match on supply, while the deeper pipeline (retatrutide triple agonist) extends the lead. Lilly backs this with a U.S. manufacturing build-out exceeding $50B (a $3.5B Lehigh Valley, PA plant and a $1.2B Puerto Rico oral-solids site). Analysts are constructive: Buy/Moderate Buy across ~30-31 analysts, average 12-month targets around $1,215-1,265, range roughly $850 to $1,400-1,500.\n\nThe bear case centers on valuation, concentration, and pricing politics. At ~$1,130, LLY trades at a trailing P/E near 40x and forward P/E around 30x, with scattered PEG estimates (~0.30 to ~1.40) — a premium versus Novo Nordisk's ~11x, leaving little room for slips. Roughly two-thirds of revenue depends on the tirzepatide franchise, concentrating risk. Drug-pricing pressure is crystallizing: under most-favored-nation deals with the Trump administration, tirzepatide sells at ~$346/month average via TrumpRx and ~$245/month for Medicare, and management flagged lower realized prices as a partial offset to volume. Competition is intensifying — Novo launched an oral Wegovy in January 2026 (~50,000 weekly scripts) and Amgen and Roche advance obesity candidates — even as Novo's share slipped toward ~40% versus Lilly's ~60%. Manufacturing/supply execution, IRA/tariff exposure, and oral-pill efficacy that trails injectables (orforglipron ~12% weight loss at top dose vs ~20%+ for tirzepatide) are added overhangs. This report describes the setup and does not constitute a buy, sell, or hold recommendation.

Findings (16)

Q1 2026 revenue was $19.8B, up 56% YoY, with non-GAAP EPS of $8.55 (up ~156% YoY) and GAAP EPS of $8.26, beating consensus near $6.85.

High confidence

Lilly's own press release confirms $19.8B revenue (+56%), GAAP EPS $8.26, non-GAAP EPS $8.55; multiple outlets corroborate the 56% growth and the EPS beat versus a ~$6.85 estimate.

prnewswire.comtikr.compharmaceutical-technology.com

Mounjaro Q1 2026 global sales were ~$8.7B (up ~125% YoY) and Zepbound U.S. sales were ~$4.1B (up ~79%); combined GLP-1 revenue was ~$12.8B, adding ~$6.7B of YoY growth.

High confidence

The Lilly release lists Mounjaro $8.7B (+125%) and Zepbound $4.1B U.S. (+79%); TIKR and other coverage report combined $12.8B and ~$6.7B of incremental growth, with GLP-1 now ~65% of revenue.

prnewswire.comtikr.comheygotrade.com

Lilly raised full-year 2026 guidance to revenue of $82-85B and non-GAAP EPS of $35.50-37.00, with performance margin guided to 47.0-48.5%.

High confidence

The press release shows revenue raised to $82-85B (from $80-83B), non-GAAP EPS to $35.50-37.00, and performance margin to 47.0-48.5%; multiple outlets confirm the raise.

prnewswire.compharmaceutical-technology.comalphaspread.com

Q1 2026 gross margin was approximately 82% (81.9% in the release; ~82.8% on a TTM basis), among the highest in large-cap pharma.

High confidence

Lilly reported gross margin of 81.9% of revenue for Q1 2026 (down 0.6 pp); StockAnalysis lists a TTM gross margin of ~82.8%.

prnewswire.comstockanalysis.com

The FDA approved Foundayo (orforglipron), Lilly's once-daily oral GLP-1 pill for chronic weight management, which can be taken any time of day without food or water restrictions.

High confidence

Lilly's investor release and AJMC confirm FDA approval of orforglipron (brand Foundayo) for obesity/overweight with comorbidity, marketed as the only GLP-1 pill without food/water timing restrictions.

investor.lilly.comajmc.comgoodrx.com

Orforglipron beat oral semaglutide head-to-head in type 2 diabetes (ACHIEVE-3, n=1,698), delivering superior A1C and weight reduction across primary and key secondary endpoints.

High confidence

Lilly's release on ACHIEVE-3 reports superiority over oral semaglutide on A1C and weight; AJMC corroborates the head-to-head win across primary and all key secondary endpoints in the 52-week, 1,698-patient trial.

investor.lilly.commanagedhealthcareexecutive.comajmc.com

Orforglipron's weight-loss efficacy (~12% at the highest dose) trails injectable tirzepatide (~20%+) and Novo's semaglutide injectable (~14%), positioning the pill on convenience/scale rather than peak efficacy.

Medium confidence

GoodRx cites ~12% average weight loss for orforglipron at top dose over 72 weeks vs 20%+ for injectables; 24/7 Wall St notes tirzepatide delivers ~20% body-weight reduction vs ~14% for semaglutide. Exact figures vary by trial/duration.

goodrx.com247wallst.com

LLY traded around $1,123-1,133 in early June 2026, closing at a record $1,131.42 on June 5 and hitting a fresh all-time intraday high of $1,166.29 on June 7; 52-week range is roughly $624-$1,166.

High confidence

StockAnalysis and MarketBeat list the June 5 close at ~$1,131-1,133; a search of recent data shows June 7 intraday high of $1,166.29 with shares near $1,123, and a 52-week low near $623.78.

stockanalysis.comfinance.yahoo.commarketbeat.com

LLY is up roughly 42-48% over the trailing twelve months but modestly negative year-to-date (~-3%).

Medium confidence

StockAnalysis cites a 52-week change of +47.74%; Public reports ~+41.84% over the past year and a YTD total return of -3.03%. The 1Y figure drifts with the measurement window.

stockanalysis.compublic.commacrotrends.net

Price sits well above its 50-day MA (~$973) and 200-day MA (~$948), a bullish moving-average alignment.

Medium confidence

StockAnalysis lists a 50-day MA of $973.02 and 200-day MA of $947.62; Investing.com shows the price above both. Some vendors show stale/lagged MA values around $930-1,030, reflecting different update dates.

stockanalysis.cominvesting.com

14-day RSI in early June 2026 was broadly neutral, with vendor readings ranging from the mid-30s to low-50s.

Low confidence

Sources reported RSI values of ~36, ~46.7 and ~51.7 in early June; the spread reflects differing snapshot times. None indicate overbought (>70) conditions.

investing.combarchart.comtradingview.com

Valuation is premium: trailing P/E ~40x and forward P/E ~30x; PEG estimates are contested, ranging from ~0.30 to ~1.40 across vendors.

Medium confidence

StockAnalysis lists trailing P/E 40.19 and forward P/E 30.34 with PEG 1.40; GuruFocus cites PEG 1.21 and FinanceCharts ~0.30. PEG varies widely with the growth-rate input, so it is treated as contested.

stockanalysis.comgurufocus.comfinancecharts.com

Analyst consensus is Buy/Moderate Buy across ~30-31 analysts, with an average 12-month target around $1,215-1,265 and a range from roughly $850 to $1,400-1,500.

High confidence

MarketBeat shows Moderate Buy (30 analysts), avg target $1,227 (high $1,400, low $850); StockAnalysis shows Buy, avg $1,215, median $1,251, range $850-$1,500 across 31 analysts.

marketbeat.comstockanalysis.comtipranks.com

Under most-favored-nation deals with the Trump administration, tirzepatide is sold at ~$346/month average via TrumpRx and ~$245/month for Medicare patients (with a $50 copay), pressuring realized prices.

Medium confidence

Pharmacy Times details TrumpRx tirzepatide at ~$346/month and Medicare at $245/month with $50 copay; Lilly's Q1 release notes growth was partially offset by lower realized prices on obesity/diabetes drugs. Exact net-price impact is not disclosed.

pharmacytimes.comdrugdiscoverytrends.comprnewswire.com

Competition is intensifying: Novo launched an oral Wegovy in January 2026 (~50,000 weekly scripts) and is down to ~40% GLP-1 share vs Lilly's ~60%, while Amgen and Roche advance obesity candidates.

Medium confidence

24/7 Wall St reports Lilly ~60% vs Novo ~40% share and Novo's oral Wegovy at ~50,000 weekly scripts; CNBC documents Novo's decline. Share figures are estimates and vary by segment (diabetes vs obesity).

247wallst.comcnbc.comfiercepharma.com

Lilly is funding capacity with a U.S. manufacturing build-out exceeding $50B since 2020, including a $3.5B Lehigh Valley (PA) injectables plant and a $1.2B Puerto Rico oral-solids site, both with construction beginning in 2026.

High confidence

Lilly's releases and BioPharma Dive confirm planned U.S. capex exceeding $50B since 2020, with $27B in new investment for four facilities, plus the $3.5B PA and $1.2B Puerto Rico sites breaking ground in 2026.

investor.lilly.combiopharmadive.cominvestor.lilly.com

Sources (39)

Caveats

All prices, technicals (RSI, MAs) and analyst targets are time-sensitive snapshots from approximately June 5-7, 2026 and will drift; intraday on June 7 LLY hit an all-time high of $1,166.29 while quotes near the close were ~$1,123-1,133. Current price is contested across vendors (a stale ~$1,064.74 figure appeared in one aggregate vs ~$1,131 confirmed June 5 close). RSI is marked low confidence given vendor spread (~36 to ~52); some moving-average vendors show lagged values (~$930-1,030). PEG is contested (~0.30 to ~1.40) due to differing growth inputs and is treated as such. The net financial impact of the MFN/TrumpRx pricing deals on Lilly's realized prices and margins is not quantified in disclosures and is an estimate. Orforglipron weight-loss percentages vary by trial and duration. Lilly investor-relations and AJMC pages could not be fetched directly (timeout/403) and were corroborated via the PRNewswire mirror and secondary outlets. This report is an information synthesis only and does not constitute a buy, sell, or hold recommendation.

This report is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice. No buy / sell / hold recommendation is made or implied.

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