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Report date: 2026-06-02

$14.96+0.28 (+1.91%)Live · delayed quote, informational only

Analysis focus

Provide a balanced, comprehensive analysis: fundamentals and valuation, the Wall Street view, technical posture, and the key forward risks and catalysts.

Summary

Ford (NYSE: F) trades at $16.65 on June 2, 2026 (market cap $66.35B, EV $204B), up 60.5% over the past 52 weeks with an RSI of 70.7 in technically overbought territory. The recent run-up has been catalyzed by a strong Q1 2026 print — revenue of $43.3B (+6% YoY), adjusted EPS of $0.66 vs. $0.19 consensus, adjusted EBIT of $3.5B vs. $1.0B YoY, and net income of $2.5B — but the headline beat was materially inflated by a one-time $1.3B IEEPA tariff refund following a Supreme Court ruling, prompting Ford to raise full-year 2026 adjusted EBIT guidance by $500M to $8.5–$10.5B while holding adjusted FCF at $5–$6B. The sell case is supported by: a negative trailing P/E (TTM EPS -$1.53, net loss -$6.11B), elevated EV/EBITDA of 26.9x, a 20% YoY dividend cut to $0.60/share, persistent Model e EV losses (-$777M in Q1, $4.0–$4.5B guided for 2026), and a Wall Street consensus 'Hold' with an average price target of $14.35 (median $13.90), implying ~14–17% downside from current levels — with major banks like Goldman ($13 Neutral), Wells Fargo ($10 Underweight), Morgan Stanley ($14 Equal-Weight), and Barclays ($13 Equal-Weight) all sitting well below spot. The hold/upside case rests on recent bullish revisions from Citi ($13→$19 Neutral on 6/1/26) and BofA ($17→$20 Buy on 5/29/26), the highest-target $20 implying ~20% upside, plus operational improvement in Model e losses (-$72M YoY) and the raised EBIT guidance. The evidence skews toward locking in gains: price sits above both average and median analyst targets, valuation multiples are elevated, dividend was cut, and the Q1 earnings beat was substantially driven by a non-recurring tariff benefit rather than core operations.

Findings (11)

Ford trades at $16.65 on June 2, 2026 with a market cap of $66.35B and enterprise value of $204B; the stock has rallied 60.5% over the past 52 weeks and is technically overbought with RSI(14) at 70.74.

High confidence

Direct source verification confirms price $16.65, market cap $66.35B, EV $204B, 52-week price change +60.50%, RSI(14) 70.74.

stockanalysis.com

Earnings-based valuation is distorted by losses: trailing P/E is n/a (TTM EPS -$1.53, net loss -$6.11B), forward P/E is 11.16, P/B is 1.77, EV/EBITDA is 26.92x.

High confidence

TTM losses driven by a Q4 2025 -$11.1B charge eliminate trailing P/E; EV/EBITDA of 26.9x is well above Ford's historical high-single-digit norm.

stockanalysis.com

Versus peer GM, Ford screens expensive on EV/EBITDA (26.92x vs 9.78x) and forward P/E (11.16 vs 6.51).

High confidence

GM metrics verified: trailing P/E 32.38, forward P/E 6.51, P/B 1.19, EV/EBITDA 9.78x. Ford's EV/EBITDA is ~2.75x GM's.

stockanalysis.comstockanalysis.com

Dividend yield is 3.60% on a $0.60 annual dividend, but the dividend was cut ~20% YoY (elimination of the supplemental).

High confidence

Ford pays $0.15 quarterly ($0.60 annualized). 2025 total of $0.75 (regular + supplemental) dropping to $0.60 in 2026 = 20% cut, driven by $1B tariff and $1B Novelis fire headwinds.

stockanalysis.com

Q1 2026 results headline beat — revenue $43.3B (+6% YoY), adj. EBIT $3.5B vs $1.0B YoY, net income $2.5B, adj. EPS $0.66 vs $0.19 consensus — was materially inflated by a one-time $1.3B IEEPA tariff refund following a Supreme Court ruling.

High confidence

The $1.3B benefit equals 37% of adj. EBIT and 52% of net income. SCOTUS Learning Resources, Inc. v. Trump (24-1287, 2/20/26, 6-3) invalidated IEEPA tariffs. Underlying operational EBIT was closer to ~$2.2B.

finance.yahoo.comstocktitan.net

Ford raised full-year 2026 adj. EBIT guidance by $500M to $8.5–$10.5B, while holding adj. FCF guide unchanged at $5.0–$6.0B and capex at $9.5–$10.5B.

High confidence

Confirmed via Ford 8-K (April 29, 2026). The raise is modest (~5.5% at midpoint) and primarily attributable to the one-time tariff refund plus Novelis recovery.

stocktitan.net

Model e (EV) segment continues to lose money at scale: Q1 2026 EBIT loss of $777M (only $72M better YoY), with full-year 2026 guidance of $4.0–$4.5B in losses and $1B incremental Model e investment.

High confidence

CFO Sherry House stated FY guide. The ~$4B+ annual structural loss remains a major drag and a key bear-thesis pillar.

stocktitan.net

Wall Street consensus is 'Hold' with average 12-month target of $14.35 and median $13.90 — implying ~14% (median ~17%) downside from $16.65 spot.

High confidence

S&P Global Market Intelligence panel of 21 analysts: Hold consensus, $14.35 average, $13.90 median, range $10–$20. Current price exceeds even the aggregator averages.

stockanalysis.com

Rating breakdown (21 analysts): 3 Strong Buy / 1 Buy / 16 Hold / 0 Sell / 1 Strong Sell — Hold is ~76% of the panel.

High confidence

Verified breakdown. Pattern is unambiguously neutral-to-cautious.

stockanalysis.com

Recent 90-day actions mixed but cautious: Citi $13->$19 Neutral (6/1/26); BofA $17->$20 Buy (5/29/26); Morgan Stanley Equal-Weight $14 (5/13/26); Goldman cut $15->$13 Neutral (4/14/26); Wells Fargo Underweight $10 (early April); Barclays Equal-Weight $13 (1/23/26).

High confidence

Each action independently corroborated. Even the two recent upgrades only get to roughly flat-to-modest upside from $16.65 spot; rest of major-bank universe sits at $10-$14.

benzinga.com

Target range spans $10 low (~40% downside) to $20 high (~20% upside) — bull-case upside materially smaller than bear-case downside.

High confidence

High $20 (+20.12%), Low $10 (-39.94%). Risk/reward at current spot is unfavorable on consensus.

stockanalysis.com

Sources (7)

Caveats

All metrics point-in-time as of June 2, 2026. Q1 2026 EBIT and EPS beat is materially distorted by a one-time $1.3B IEEPA tariff refund. EV/EBITDA and forward P/E come from one aggregator (stockanalysis.com); other providers report slightly different multiples. Several sources are secondary aggregators. Tariff policy remains volatile — SCOTUS invalidated IEEPA tariffs but Section 232/301 authorities remain in play.

This report is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice. No buy / sell / hold recommendation is made or implied.

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