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AAPL logoAAPLEquity research

Report date: 2026-07-17

$336.13-0.87 (-0.26%)Live · delayed quote, informational only

Analysis focus

Provide a balanced, comprehensive analysis: fundamentals and valuation, the Wall Street view, technical posture, and the key forward risks and catalysts.

Summary

Apple enters mid-July 2026 in price discovery at record highs, closing at an all-time high of $333.26 on July 16 for a ~$4.89T market cap [2][7], having added ~15% (~$600B) since June 25 [8]. The rally rests on genuine operational strength: fiscal Q2 2026 delivered record revenue of $111.2B (+16.6% YoY) and EPS of $2.01 (+22% YoY), beating consensus with no material one-time items flagged, driven by iPhone 17 demand and Services [3], alongside a dividend raise and expanded buybacks [11]. The balance sheet is robust — ~$129.2B TTM free cash flow against $84.7B debt in a net cash position [4] — and the near-term narrative is supported by China's regulator approving Apple Intelligence [8], investor approval of a low-capex 'AI restraint' strategy [21], and target raises from Morgan Stanley ($330$360) [6], Citi ($365) [21], and TD Cowen/Bernstein ($350) [15]. Momentum is bullish but not yet stretched: price sits well above the 50-day (~$296–299) and 200-day (~$272–300) moving averages in a golden-cross posture [19], with 14-day RSI at ~64.3, below the 70 overbought line [20]. The hold-and-be-cautious case centers on valuation and target math. Apple's TTM P/E of ~38–40x sits roughly 42% above its 10-year median of 26.83 and near the top of its 5-year range [1][5], with EV/EBITDA of ~28–30x and price-to-book of ~45x [10] — a marked premium to peer Microsoft's ~16x EV/EBITDA and ~6.7x P/B, even though Apple out-earns MSFT on free cash flow (~$129B vs ~$73B) [12]. Critically, the stock has run past most analyst targets: average 12-month targets cluster in the low-to-mid $320s ($316$329) [9], the median is ~$310 [22], and both figures sit at or below the ~$330–333 spot price, implying limited-to-negative net upside [16]. Several bank targets bracket or fall below current levels — JPMorgan $325 and UBS Neutral $296 [15] — and KeyBanc set a bearish $250 target on July 14, ~24% below spot [23]. The dividend yields just ~0.32%, near a historic low driven by the elevated price [11]. On balance, the evidence is genuinely two-sided: strong, non-recurring-free earnings, record cash generation, and clear AI catalysts justify the momentum, while an elevated multiple versus Apple's own history and a peer, plus a consensus average target now trailing the share price, argue the good news may be substantially priced in. The unusually wide target dispersion — from KeyBanc's $250 and lows near $215 up to a $400 high [14] — signals real disagreement, with an earnings report due July 30 (against a four-quarter beat streak that sets a high bar) as the next test [21].

Findings (24)

Apple's trailing-twelve-month P/E is approximately 38–40x, versus a forward P/E of roughly 31–37x, both well above its ~26–27x 10-year median.

High confidence

GuruFocus reports a TTM P/E of 38.07 as of July 15, 2026 — 42% above the 10-year median of 26.83 — while stockanalysis.com shows 40.40 trailing / 36.52 forward; a separate search cited forward P/E of 31.35, so the exact forward figure varies by source but all confirm a premium to Apple's own history.

As of the July 16, 2026 close, Apple (AAPL) traded at $333.26 per share with a market capitalization of approximately $4.89 trillion and an enterprise value of roughly $4.83 trillion.

High confidence

stockanalysis.com's statistics page lists AAPL at $333.26 (July 16, 2026 close), a $4.89T market cap, and a $4.83T enterprise value; EV sits below market cap because Apple's cash exceeds its debt (net cash position). An intraweek Yahoo/companies data point showed ~$314.86 on July 15, indicating a rising, high-$300s trading range.

For fiscal Q2 2026 (reported April 30, 2026), Apple posted record revenue of $111.2 billion (+16.6% YoY) and diluted EPS of $2.01 (+22% YoY), beating consensus of ~$109.6B revenue and $1.94 EPS.

High confidence

Multiple reports cite $111.18B revenue and $2.01 EPS beating estimates of $109.58B and $1.94; the beat was driven by iPhone revenue of $56.99B (vs $46.84B a year prior, on iPhone 17 demand) and Services growth — no material one-time items (asset sales, legal settlements, insurance, or tariff refunds) were flagged, so the beat appears operational rather than boosted by non-recurring gains.

Apple generated approximately $129.2 billion in trailing-twelve-month free cash flow against total debt of about $84.7 billion as of mid-2026.

High confidence

GuruFocus and stockanalysis.com both report ~$129.17B TTM free cash flow and $84.71B total debt; with cash exceeding debt, Apple maintains a net cash position, consistent with its enterprise value being below its market cap.

Apple's current multiples sit near the top of its 5-year range, with the TTM P/E ~42% above its 10-year median of 26.83.

High confidence

GuruFocus explicitly states the 38.07 TTM P/E is 42% above the 10-year median of 26.83; MacroTrends' long-run P/E history corroborates that a high-30s/40x multiple is elevated relative to Apple's typical mid-20s-to-30s trading range over the past five years.

Morgan Stanley raised its AAPL price target to $360 from $330 following WWDC in June 2026, citing greater clarity on Apple's AI monetization strategy.

High confidence

TheStreet and MacRumors both report the $330→$360 raise tied to WWDC 2026; the new target sits roughly 8–9% above the ~$330 current price.

AAPL closed at an all-time high of $333.26 on July 16, 2026, after hitting an intraday high near $327.50 on July 15 (up ~4% on the day).

High confidence

MacroTrends lists the July 16, 2026 close of $333.26 as the record closing price; Financhill and FXLeaders both cite the $327.50 print on July 15 with a ~4.01% daily gain.

The July rally was catalyzed chiefly by China's cyberspace regulator approving Apple Intelligence, helping AAPL add ~15% (~$600B market cap) since June 25.

High confidence

FXLeaders and Investing.com report China's regulatory green light for Apple Intelligence as the trigger for the breakout above $327 and quantify the ~15% / ~$600B move since June 25.

Average 12-month price targets for AAPL cluster in the low-to-mid $320s in July 2026, with cited figures of $322.71 (55 analysts), $328.69 (30 analysts), and $316.76 (47 analysts, S&P Global).

Medium confidence

Multiple aggregators independently report averages in the $316–$329 band; the spread reflects differing analyst panels and refresh dates rather than a single authoritative number.

Apple trades at roughly 28–30x EV/EBITDA and about 45–46x price-to-book as of mid-July 2026.

Medium confidence

stockanalysis.com lists EV/EBITDA of 30.21 and price-to-book of 45.90; a separate aggregator showed EV/EBITDA of 28.39 and P/B of 45.17, so the metrics cluster in those ranges. The extreme P/B reflects Apple's small book equity after years of buybacks (book value per share ~$7.26 per GuruFocus).

Apple pays a dividend yielding roughly 0.32%, and management raised the dividend and expanded buybacks alongside its April 30, 2026 Q2 results.

Medium confidence

stockanalysis.com lists a 0.32% dividend yield (near a historic low, driven by the elevated share price rather than a cut); Q2 2026 earnings coverage notes management raised the dividend and expanded the share-repurchase program — a raise, not a cut.

Versus peer Microsoft (MSFT), Apple trades at a materially richer valuation: ~28–30x EV/EBITDA and ~45x P/B for Apple vs ~16x EV/EBITDA and ~6.7x P/B for Microsoft, though Apple produces more free cash flow (~$129B vs ~$73B).

Medium confidence

Aggregated data shows MSFT at EV/EBITDA 16.41, P/B 6.70, dividend yield 0.92%, FCF ~$72.92B and total debt $125.43B, against Apple's ~28–30x EV/EBITDA, ~45x P/B, 0.32% yield, ~$129.17B FCF and $84.71B debt — Apple is priced at a premium on cash-flow multiples while carrying less debt and paying a lower yield.

AAPL carries a consensus 'Buy' rating, with one aggregator breakdown of ~48 analysts showing 30 Buy, 16 Hold, and 2 Sell ratings as of mid-July 2026.

Medium confidence

Aggregator data reports a consensus 'Buy' with a 30/16/2 Buy/Hold/Sell split; the skew toward Buy/Hold with only 2 Sell ratings supports the overall Buy consensus.

The full range of 12-month targets spans roughly $215–$250 on the low end to $400 on the high end, indicating wide analyst disagreement.

Medium confidence

Aggregators list a high target of $400 and lows of $215 (one panel) and a $250 KeyBanc target, a ~$150–$185 spread that signals unusually high dispersion for a mega-cap.

Among other major banks, JPMorgan reiterated a $325 target, TD Cowen raised to $350 (from $335), Bernstein reiterated Outperform at $350, and UBS maintained Neutral at $296.

Medium confidence

Benzinga and MacRumors report these bank-level actions; JPMorgan ($325) and UBS ($296, Neutral) bracket the current price near-to-below, while TD Cowen and Bernstein ($350) imply ~6% upside.

AAPL traded around $330–$333 in mid-July 2026 (≈$333.26 on July 15, ≈$330 intraday), placing the ~$322–$329 average target roughly in line with or slightly below the current price.

Medium confidence

Reported prices of $333.26 (July 15) and ~$330 intraday mean the consensus average implies limited net upside, with several bank targets (JPM $325, UBS $296) at or below spot.

AAPL returned roughly +41.5% over the trailing six months, outperforming the Zacks Computer & Technology sector's ~28.4% over the same period.

Medium confidence

The Nasdaq/Zacks article frames the move as a '42% six-month rally' and cites AAPL's 41.5% six-month gain versus the sector's 28.4%.

AAPL's trailing 12-month total return (dividends reinvested) is approximately +46.7%.

Medium confidence

FinanceCharts reports an AAPL trailing-twelve-month total return of ~46.73%, corroborated directionally by TotalRealReturns' dividend-reinvested series.

At ~$327–333, AAPL trades well above both its 50-day moving average (~$296–299) and 200-day moving average (~$272–300), with the 50-day above the 200-day — a bullish 'golden cross' posture.

Medium confidence

Financhill cites a 50-day of ~$298.71 and 200-day of ~$299.96, while FinanceCharts data implies a 50-day (~$295.9) above the 200-day (~$271.9); sources disagree on the exact 200-day level, but price is far above both regardless.

AAPL's 14-day RSI was ~64.3 as of July 14, 2026 — elevated but not yet overbought (the >70 threshold).

Medium confidence

Financhill reports RSI(14) of 64.3 on July 14, 2026, consistent with Investing.com's momentum readings placing the stock in neutral-to-strong territory below the 70 overbought line.

Additional tailwinds included Citi raising its price target to $365 and investor approval of Apple's low-capex 'AI restraint' strategy, ahead of an earnings report due July 30, 2026 with AAPL on a four-quarter beat streak.

Medium confidence

FXLeaders cites Citi's $365 target fueling the breakout; Invezz attributes gains to Apple avoiding costly AI data-center buildouts, with both noting the July 30 earnings date and the ongoing beat streak (a high bar to clear).

The median 12-month price target is approximately $310, modestly below the mean, based on a panel of ~29 Wall Street analysts.

Medium confidence

A reported median of $310 sitting below the ~$322–$329 averages indicates a right-skewed distribution pulled up by a few high targets.

KeyBanc set a bearish AAPL price target of $250 on July 14, 2026, roughly 24% below the ~$330 trading price.

Medium confidence

Benzinga's analyst-ratings feed lists a KeyBanc $250 target dated July 14, 2026, one of the few actions implying meaningful downside from current levels.

With AAPL in price discovery at record highs, immediate overhead resistance sits near ~$323 (upper Bollinger band) and prior highs ~$315, while support clusters at ~$290–295 and deeper at ~$275.

Low confidence

AltIndex/JournalArta cite the ~$323 upper Bollinger band and a $290.81–294.80 support zone formed by converging trendlines/moving averages, with accumulated-volume support near $275.15; levels are model-dependent and have partly been exceeded by the record run.

Sources (29)

Caveats

Highly time-sensitive: prices, multiples, and analyst actions are snapshotted at mid-July 2026 (mostly July 14–16) and the July 30, 2026 earnings report could reset the picture quickly; the stock is in active price discovery at record highs, so intraday figures moved materially even within the cited window (e.g., ~$314.86 on July 15 per one Yahoo data point vs. the $333.26 July 16 close) [2][7]. Data-quality notes: several key metrics vary by source and refresh date — forward P/E ranges from ~31x to ~37x [1], EV/EBITDA spans ~28–30x and the 200-day moving average is cited anywhere from ~$272 to ~$300 [10][19]. Analyst averages ($316.76–$328.69) reflect different panels (30–55 analysts) rather than one authoritative number [9], and technical support/resistance levels (~$275–$323) are model-dependent and partly already exceeded by the rally [24]. Findings blend primary sources (CNBC/company Q2 coverage, 10-Q) with secondary aggregators (stockanalysis.com, GuruFocus, MacroTrends, Benzinga, MarketBeat) and lower-reliability momentum/technical sites (Financhill, FXLeaders, AltIndex); the higher-conviction items (price, market cap, Q2 results, valuation vs. history) are rated 'high,' while target-panel composition, technicals, and the peer/return comparisons are 'medium'-to-'low' and should be weighted accordingly. Gaps: this synthesis covers only AAPL vs. a single peer (MSFT) and does not address regulatory/antitrust risk, supply-chain/tariff exposure, foldable-iPhone execution risk, or the specifics of Q3 guidance; no independent valuation model or scenario analysis was performed, and per mandate no buy/sell/hold recommendation is offered.

This report is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice. No buy / sell / hold recommendation is made or implied.

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